Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Wvuafm Tuscaloosa. Any opinions expressed in this program are those of the host and do not represent the thoughts or opinions of 90.7, WVUA or the University of Alabama.
[00:00:18] Hello, everybody, and welcome to season four, episode six of Pulse in the Nation. This is the last episode we are doing before the results of the 2024 presidential election are revealed to us. I am Brandon Vick, of course, as always, I am the host of Pulse of the Nation. And it is time for me to give my final predictions about the 2024 election. But first, I need to talk about something.
[00:00:48] So usually I wouldn't talk about C list comedians that randomly pop up on your Facebook feed or your YouTube shorts or TikTok or whatever, but I think it's pertinent that we talk about what happened at Madison Square Garden in New York. So Tony Hitchcliff, all right, he runs, for those of you who don't know, he runs a podcast called Kill Tony in which comedians, a lot of whom, you know, can range from, you know, you know, disabled, so, you know, mentally challenged or whatnot, or like comedians from all stripes. All sections get 60 minutes to just do their set. 60 minute comedies to get. Not a 60 minute. Jesus Christ, one hour of random comedians. Good Lord, I don't think anybody would want that. But 60 seconds for a comedy sketch. And if you, and if it's good, you might get future opportunities on the show. You might become a regular or whatnot. If you don't, you just move on. So that's what Tony Hinchcliffe does. He's a comic. He did a rose for Tom Brady and whatnot and he was on Comedy Central. He's pretty well known the comic circles. He's based in Austin, Texas, and usually pals around, you know, the Joe Vergens and whatnot. But he spoke out of Trump rally. He did, you know, a comedy sketch to open, you know, Trump rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City. And Tony, Tony, Tony, Tony, Tony, good lord. You know, he's supposed to be from Youngstown in a, you know, a, a key, a key city in a key senate race between Sherrod Brown and Bernie Marino where there are a fair few amount of Puerto Ricans in Youngstown, for what it's worth. Not just there, but definitely in Cleveland and Lorain as well. Just in Ohio alone. Growing Puerto Rican community in Columbus as well. But I need to ask you, you know, in making your jokes, why did you feel it necessary to call Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage?
[00:02:58] Why? Like, why? First off, that Is, in my opinion, insanely racist. All right, so let's just start off there. Second off, I think that's like the third or fourth most racist thing potentially that he even said in his own sketch.
[00:03:17] Like, Tony Hitchcliffe also joked about how Latinos are always, like, having babies or never wearing, you know, never wearing protection. He also said that Jewish people were cheap and that Palestinians were rock throwers and that black people carved watermelons instead of pumpkins for Halloween.
[00:03:39] Like, dude, how did you think that was gonna go? Now, Donald Trump, you know, a lot of what he says gets brushed off because he said so much. The media just kind of numb to it. But Tony, like, the one thing about politics that people need to learn is that Trumpism, without Trump doesn't work because no one is going to have that grip on that specific section of the American electorate like Donald Trump does.
[00:04:12] Like, when Trump says that, people say, oh, he's joking. He's not serious or whatnot.
[00:04:18] He's not being serious when he says that.
[00:04:21] But when Tony kill Tony says that, it's like, oh, oh, okay, wow, that was very racist.
[00:04:28] And to say that Hinchcliffe's comments about Puerto Rico, to say that created a firestorm unlike what we've ever seen in this election cycle, is putting it lightly.
[00:04:42] Like, you know, we. I'm recording this at the end of October, all right.
[00:04:48] I'm recording this a little bit early, to be completely honest, because I am going home for fall break.
[00:04:54] But, you know, we go through October, it's just like, well, we don't really have that much of an October surprise. Like, the race is very close to policy. The race is very close, and we really don't know who's going to win.
[00:05:06] But October surprise, Donald Trump's supporter in comic calls Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. And Puerto Ricans to say they were a little bit upset about it is underselling it hard. It's like. It's like underselling the fact that the New York Yankees are an abomination of a franchise and everybody likes to see them lose, apart from, you know, Yankees fans, which, by the way, congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers for just winning the World Series 4 games to one gentleman, sweeping the Yankees to oblivion. And the Yankees fans want Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman fired, which I don't exactly blame them, but that's neither here nor now. What is here and now is the fact that Tony Hinchcliffe kill Tony might have just cost Donald Trump the election with that rally sketch.
[00:06:05] Because here's a few Things to lay out. All right, is that first off, that got Donald Trump and the Maga movement condemned by pretty much every single Puerto Rican celebrity there is to know. All right, so let's start, start out with the big three. Just musicians. Just musicians. Just musicians. And I'm going to talk about the actors like Lin Manuel Miranda and a few others who ended up endorsing Harris off the back of it. Although Lin Manuel Miranda is a liberal, he's always been a liberal, so not sure that really counts for too much. But the big three in reggaeton, which is a huge, huge style of music in Puerto rico in the 2000s and 2000s, it was Don Omar and it was Daddy Yankee. 2000s in the modern age. Now it's Bad Bunny. All three of them endorsed Kamala Harrison, Tim Wallace.
[00:07:05] Now these people have hundreds of millions of listeners, and especially in Latin America, Bad Bunny is the best known artist, one of the best known artists in the world today. Like, he is as popular, if not more popular than Taylor Swift is. Just to show you how huge popularity is. Now, to be fair, Bad Bunny is politically active person. He's campaigned against the ruling, you know, New Progressive Party in Puerto Rico and for, you know, the left wing, you know, alliance for country, which is Alianza Port Paisley, which is basically a left wing movement that has the Citizens Victory movement and the Puerto Rican Independent Party that they've united to create a joint list. But this isn't about Puerto Rican politics. He was just going to keep his activism there. But you know, these comments from Hinchcliffe with, by the way, a Trump Vance branded lecter. Right? So the Trump branding was on Kill Tony when he said that. Right.
[00:08:10] So obviously not great to have those celebrities come out against you. Jowl of Jowl and Randy, an orangutan duo, legendary duo. He said some very not nice and uncouth things about Tony Hinchcliffe.
[00:08:30] He deleted the post, but you could look it up, you could find it.
[00:08:35] There are things that I cannot say on this, you know, on this episode because they are too not safe for work. And this would probably lead to us having to pull the episode. So CD was very upset by it. So it's not great. Jennifer Lopez, one of the most famous, you know, musicians of Puerto Rican descent, also endorsed Kamala Harris and she's going to be rallying with her in Las Vegas, Nevada, which, I mean, that's a little bit unfortunate for the Trump campaign. But, you know, celebrity endorsements, you know, celebrities endorsing, you know, the Democrat is a regular site, you know, it's like, oh, wow. Yeah, that's certainly like Donald Trump won without many celebrity endorsements in 2016. That's not the issue. What would be an issue is losing a celebrity endorsement, which is what Donald Trump did. Now, Nicky Jam is another, you know, another famous, you know, Latin artist from Puerto Rico or Latin music artist. He previously endorsed Donald Trump at a Trump rally because he thought Trump would be better for the economy.
[00:09:48] Now he's pulled his endorsement because of Tony Inchcliffe's comments. So, yeah, that's great. I mean, lose one of your most famous celebrity endorsers, that is certainly, that's certainly gonna help you.
[00:10:01] Definitely. What also is going to help the Trump campaign, and notice I'm being sarcastic here, is that Puerto Ricans are a very important part of the electorate in a few key states. Obviously New York, you know, a lot of Puerto Ricans, like New York City, Bronx or whatnot. There's also Florida as well. The states is probably going to go to the Republicans this year, but there are over a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, especially in the Orlando metros where they're most dominant, like, especially around Kissimmee and Osceola County. So kiss Republican chances winning that county goodbye. Darren Soto probably had the biggest sigh of relief he's ever had his entire life. But in the 9th district, down there in Osceola and parts of Orange County.
[00:10:48] But, yeah, not exactly great. It's also not going to help your shots in the Tampa metro. Winning things down there, especially Hillsborough county, not going to help your chances of flipping that county. Republicans. But you do you.
[00:11:05] What's also not going to help is the fact that there are Puerto Rican communities in, of course, areas like Texas, obviously the vast majority of Latinos Mexican. But there is, there are sizable Puerto Rican communities in the cities, especially Houston. So not exactly in Dallas as well. So not exactly a great sign, especially if Texas, for whatever reason, winds up being very close, especially in that Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin. All right. Which I'll get to later. Also in Georgia, particularly like Gwinnett and Cobb counties, there are large Puerto Rican communities there. Again, not great. Great to alienate them in a, in a much more crucial state for Republicans in Texas is as far as, you know, what it would take to get 270 electoral votes.
[00:11:50] Obviously, again, I've mentioned Ohio before. There's, I mean, a lot of Milwaukee, Wisconsin's Latino population is Puerto Rican as well. So again, not great when you're trying to make gains. Also, large Puerto Rican communities in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut is very, I think like the most Puerto Rican state in the union, but they're all safe Democratic states. New Jersey is a fair few as well. Virginia has a few. That's not going to help your chances of flipping the seventh district, guys. But the one state I want to talk about is Pennsylvania.
[00:12:24] There are two areas I want to focus on here. I want to focus on North Philly and I want to focus on the Lehigh Valley and also want to focus on like their south central and Northeast Pennsylvania has pretty large Puerto Rican communities as well. And I'm going to spend the next like three to five minutes talking about this because let's focus on North Philly. All right. And focus on the kind of the third reason why this is awful news for Donald Trump, because on the same day that killed on you, Tony Hinchcliffe made these comments that were widely denounced by literally everybody, including the Catholic Diocese of Puerto Rico and Tony Hinchcliffe's home diocese in Youngstown as well. He did attend a Catholic high school, for what it's worth.
[00:13:11] I mean, not only that, it's obviously not great, but Kamala Harris literally devoted that day, that entire day, that Sunday to campaigning specifically on issues that matter to Puerto Rican voters. Like that Sunday was her day to appeal to Puerto Rican voters in North Philly. And guess what? Tony Hinchcliffe does gives them free ad content that has a speaker with a Trump Vance brand elector denigrating Puerto Rico.
[00:13:48] Yeah, it's just a perfect storm for the Kamala Harris campaign. Like, yeah, I mean, brilliant, brilliant, brilliant strategy from the Trump campaign, everybody. Brilliant strategy.
[00:14:01] What also doesn't help is south central Pennsylvania areas like Harrisburg, Lancaster and York have large Puerto Rican communities as well. And when you're Scott Perry, when you're in the 10th district running against Chanel Stelson and you're running and trying to defend what is now pretty much a toss up seat, that's certainly not going to help you, especially when you are a far right Congress member, former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, yourself running up against a former TV news anchor. I mean, that's not going to help you. I mean, Northeast Pennsylvania, Matt Cartwright, the 8th District is a Trump district. But you know, areas like Monroe county do have a fair amount of Puerto Ricans in them and so does Lucerne. Again, you know, areas, you know, like Hazleton, East Stroudsburg. I mean, it's not exactly the brightest idea to hurt your margins further in that 8th district. If you're Donald Trump, you won it by a couple of points in 2020. I don't think you would want to do anything that might endanger Rob brushing his attempts at unseating a tough to unseat incumbent Trump district, like, not exactly great news, but the worst news that there is for Republicans in Pennsylvania is in the Lehigh Valley. There is Reading, there is Allentown and there is Bethlehem and there is Easton.
[00:15:25] All four of those cities have very, very large Puerto Rican communities to the point where parts of those communities are dominated by Puerto Rico.
[00:15:36] And these are all areas where Donald Trump made gains in 2020 because he made gains of Puerto Ricans. He made these same gains in Puerto Rico imports of York and Lancaster. He made these same gains in Puerto Rican parts of Philadelphia, of Philadelphia, especially north Philly Juniata.
[00:15:58] And now that those gains might be reversed to where common law heirs could maybe even not only just rely on those gains, rely on increased turnout from a Democratic constituency, recover those margins, especially in Lehigh and those Puerto Rican parts of the Lehigh Valley.
[00:16:20] Combine that with the already expected suburban gains amongst white suburban college educated voters in, you know, Philly Betro in those, you know, collar counties, you know, in Bucks, especially Montgomery, Delaware and Chester. But now also combine that with the Lehigh Valley, you know, white college educated suburbs. Combine that with Reading suburbs. Combine that with the suburbs of Harrisburg and out in New York and in Lancaster. Combine that with the already expected leopard shifts in the Pittsburgh metro, especially in out Allegheny county and Southern Butler County. Southern Butler county, pretty GOP area, but has been swinging to the left as an extension of North Allegheny, you know, North Hills or whatnot. Combine that.
[00:17:05] And what you see is if Tony Hinchcliffe cost Donald Trump Pennsylvania in there for the election, that guy's going to get offshore exercise by the right wing.
[00:17:19] Like he might have wanted to go on kind of like a right wing grift tour or whatever, try to make money off of right wingers. If they lose Pennsylvania, they lose it by an error margin and a Puerto Ricans swing to the left and Puerto committee swing to the left. Then they're gonna, they're gonna blame Tony.
[00:17:36] And it's not like Tony won't have it coming. He'll definitely have it coming.
[00:17:41] But here's the other thing I want to talk about. You know, Trump campaign isn't completely blameless either. El Nuevo Dia is the largest, you know, print magazine in Puerto Rico by readership and distribution.
[00:17:55] And day after, like a couple days after all this went down, they endorsed Kamala Harris and forcefully criticized Donald Trump and Tim Walz, not Tim and J.D. vance, obviously. And Tony Hitchcliff.
[00:18:10] So again, not great to turn Puerto Ricans against you Puerto Ricans, you might have needed to win Pennsylvania, for the love of God, even Wisconsin, in Georgia.
[00:18:22] Like, I don't get it.
[00:18:25] They approve these. They had to approve the comments that Hinchcliffe makes. These came from a recent comedy sketch that he doing the past week.
[00:18:34] And the reason why I say they had to have accepted it is because they got, they got the script and they cut out parts that they thought were too, were too much. Like Tony Hinchcliffe was gonna call Kamala Harris the C word. And no, I don't mean communist. And they cut that out. So does that mean that these other, all these racist jokes were okayed by the Trump team?
[00:19:02] Because if they were, oh Lord, oh Lord. Like we have radio hosts in Allentown, Pennsylvania saying that these comments fired up the Puerto Rican community to take an active interest in these elections.
[00:19:16] I mean, really, just a comical, comical goal by the Trump campaign.
[00:19:22] And if they do narrowly lose the election because they lose, nearly lose Pennsylvania, it's going to be because of moments like this being brought down by your own hubris when you think you have it in the bag when you're trying to go to rallies in New Mexico, in western Virginia within the next week, because expanding the map or whatever, when you're going to lose both of those states by 10 plus points. Really, really a masterclass by the Trump campaign. But enough talk about all of that. It's time to talk about my predictions. So there are four areas of predictions that I am going to do. I am going to talk about the governors. I'm going to talk about the U.S. senate, I'm going to talk about the U.S. house. And finally I'm going to talk about the presidency. So let's start with the governor's race. And there is only one competitive race for if you want to stretch it out to Washington and North Carolina, which Democrats will win? I mean, North Carolina, I mean, I've already done a long winded episode about Mark Robinson's many, many misdoings.
[00:20:32] If you want to learn more, go there. But I'm not going to talk about it. Mark Robinson is the Doug Mastriano of this cycle. Dave Riker is not making Washington competitive for Republicans. There is an interesting race in Indiana that might closer than people expect, but Republicans are going to win it. The one competitive race is New Hampshire and that's a race there. We have, you have a Republican nominee, Kelly Ayotte, against the Democratic nominee, Joyce Craig, the mayor of Manchester. And the polls have it Very close even to where Ayotte might be leading.
[00:21:05] But I do have that race going to Democrats nearly going to Joyce Craig because I think Kamala is going to win New Hampshire by 10 plus points. And I don't care how good of a candidate Kelly aot is. Remember in 2016 she nearly lost the New Hampshire Senate race and she didn't really outrun the top of the ticket there. Now, obviously the US Senate race is different from governor's race. Kelly A should get some down ballot ticket splitting coming her way, but to 10 plus, to the manner of 10 plus points? I don't think so. I think Joyce Craig wins by anywhere from two to five points and we'll call it that. How much Joyce Craig wins by if she wins is going to be crucial in determining whether the New Hampshire Democrats can even get a statewide trifecta. Because if they can, that's a major statement that they've made. But yeah, I do think the Democrats will pick up the New Hampshire governorship. Besides that, nothing really to talk about with the governor's races except if you want scandal in North Carolina, which they there is a totoff. Now to the US Senate, by the way, for the governors, I have Republicans ending with 26 governorships and Democrats ending up with 24. For the US Senate races, I have the Democrats and independents at 48 with the Republicans at 52. Yes, I do think Sherrod Brown ultimately goes down because I do see ticket splitting continuing to fall off this year because we are in an era of increased polarization where, you know, people identify with their parties more and more even if they don't register as such, just because they might hate the other party more.
[00:22:45] And thus it becomes very tough at the federal level to break apart from that party, even if you, even if you're an entrenched incumbent. Now let's talk talk about the states that I think Democrats would offend. I have Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan going as lean Democratic.
[00:23:00] Wisconsin. Eric Hovdy has at least seemed to make it a race, but nah, look, Tammy Baldwin has always been the favorite. She continues to be the favorite. Hovde might get it down to like a 3 to 5, like a 3 to 5 point margin of victory, but that's that. Like I would be very surprised if Eric managed to win because if he manages to win, that's a Republican landslide in Michigan. Same deal with Mike Rogers. He might make it a race. But Alyssa Slotkin does have, I think higher ceiling than he does.
[00:23:32] And her being a US Representative also helps her being an actual elected official helps. It helps Sammy Baldwin as well. Yeah, I think they'll win by similar margins. Slotkin might do better and Jamie Baldwin might do better. And as for Nevada, I don't know what is going on with the polling there. I don't know why Sam Brown is pulling so poorly. I think I've said this before, like speculating whether it's pretty privileged Jackie Rosen had compared to Sam Brown who has very visible wounds of war.
[00:24:06] It might beat. Sam Brown's a carpet bagger from Texas. That also does not help.
[00:24:12] But yeah, apparently Jackie Rose is a bit more popular to give her credit for. She's not going to win by 10. She's going to win by more like two to three points. But I think that race is firmly lean Democratic as far as the likely Democratic races are concerned. Arizona and Pennsylvania. Dave McCormick I don't understand why Republicans are spending so much in Pennsylvania. They're not winning. They're not winning that. See, I don't know what Mitch McConnell's obsession is with taking out Bob K. Casey. Is a popular three tournament coming. Like I'm not sure what they're seeing that I'm not because what I'm seeing is a very comfortable Bob Casey win. At least the Republicans aren't even trying. Arizona, I mean when you nominate Kerry Lake who choked the 2022 governorship, I've talked about that in previous seasons.
[00:24:54] And the reason why she choked that is because she kind of cracked the bed in the North Phoenix suburbs and the East Valley and the Tucson suburbs as well.
[00:25:05] Not exactly great news for Gary Lake, but maybe great news for Blake Masters. And if you understand that reference, I feel so sorry for you, please log off and touch some grass. But Ruben Gallico is going to win that Senate race by at least five points. People wouldn't be shocked if he wins it by double digits. Cause Kerry Lake is just that unpopular now as far as the likely Republican races are concerned. Florida, Rick Scott, all of his races, he wins by narrow margins. Debbie Mucar Cell Powell, a former U.S. house representative, is a Democratic nominee. She's at least running a spirited campaign.
[00:25:44] And the referendums on marijuana legalization and abortion rights should help the Democrats some in Florida at least from having the bottom fallout and like they did in 2022.
[00:25:55] But no, the early votes, especially in person only votes, don't look too good for Democrats. And really the goal for Florida Democrats is again to just see what their bottom actually is. Like. Is it 20 points? Is it 15 points? Is it 10 points? Is it something A little bit less than that. This is the like in federal, you know, elections, because they need that baby baseline to figure out, okay, where do you want to invest? Where do you recover? Because you had the bottom fallout.
[00:26:26] And what happened in 2022 was Democratic turnout just collapsed, completely collapsed, because that's a party base that has given up, that's given up its belief that their votes could change an election outcome. They've been hurt too many times. They don't believe their vote counts anymore, counts for anything or matters anymore.
[00:26:47] And we'll see if a similar apathy has taken root in Democratic bases, especially amongst non white, especially black and Latino voters.
[00:26:56] But I don't think that'll be too much of a problem with Puerto Rican voters, specifically in the Orlando metro.
[00:27:04] But it'll be interesting to see where that ends up. Nebraska, the Nebraska regular, you know, election between Deb Fisher the Republican and Dan Osborne, the independent challenger. Nebraska Democrats voted narrowly to not run a candidate to let Dan Osborne, you know, get through.
[00:27:27] And look, I told you, I'm not a Dan Osborne believer. I don't think he's winning. I don't think he's going to get particularly close. But I do think he's going to keep it a single digit race. If you believe the polls, it's one of the closest Senate races in the country.
[00:27:44] So do with that what you will. I obviously don't believe the polls. I've told you a million times why I don't believe the polls. But in general, but I mean, look, he's at least made it competitive. Deb Fisher has been proven to be quite fraudulent. She is a fraud. Holy God. She is coasting on her state's partisanship. And it is so obvious to see like she's campaigning in Mississippi with Cindy Hyde Smith. She's Mississippi.
[00:28:16] Meanwhile, her Nebraska Senate race is becoming unexpectedly competitive because Dan Osborne's trying to paint himself in red colors and Def Fisher and blue colors, which by the way is pretty smart for what it's worth because also not just because painting Deb Fisher as too much of a, too much of a liberal, but also more like Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump was. Some of the ad content through Dan Otto Sport, put that in the Scottsbluff and Grand island markets and watch the money rise, you know, but yeah, will be very interesting. We've seen this experiment happen in Utah to some success for Reverend McMillan against Mike Lee. That ended up being like a test point race or whatever, which, I mean, not great Republicans. And it's also helped Democrats sort of Start to build a long term strategy for at least making Utah a lot more competitive, if not potentially to win the state in the next couple of decades. Maybe this will do the same thing for Nebraska Democrats. I don't know. I just get flashbacks to 2014 with Greg Orman, the independent candidate running against Pat Roberts to Republican and Pat Roberts winning by 10 even though the polls were very close. But yeah, the fact that this is even competitive at all, yikes.
[00:29:29] Especially in a state where that is already trending favorably to Democrats and liberals anyways. And finally, Montana, yes, I know John Tester is the incumbent, but I'm sorry, he's done. Like he is done. Now granted, you know, Trump's not going to win the state by 18 or even 15 points. He probably went up by closer to 12 points or so. The problem is Jon Tester has to outrun the statewide presidential bargains and environment by 12 points or more. And I'm sorry, Tim Sheahey is not a bottom of the barrel candidate. If there's a bottom of the barrel, Tim Sheahy is. Or Sheehy, actually that's how you say it. She is at the fourth, you know, part, like you know, the, you know, at the 25th percentile of candidates and with parts and polarization increasing, that's probably going to be enough to win by like five points or so.
[00:30:32] And the polls aren't great, which probably, which confirms the fundamentals. John Tester still has a shot, but that shot's becoming longer and longer by the day. Like I'm sorry Tester, you're done.
[00:30:45] I think Tim Sheehy wins and wins pretty comfortably now. Safe Republican flips West Virginia. Technically, Joe Manchin is an independent, you know, but he's retiring and Jim just is going to win that by like by at least 30 points. No point talking about that race. As for the tilt Republican races, Ohio and Texas, Ohio, Brennan Miranda is a God awful candidate, but I still think he eats this out by a point just because partisanship is too much.
[00:31:14] The thing to note with Ohio is that I think Trump wins it by seven to eight points.
[00:31:21] You know, it doesn't shift much from 2020.
[00:31:24] But the problem for Bernie Marino is what happens if Ohio is Trump by 6 or even Trump by 5. I think this race depends on how Republican Ohio is. Because if this is like Trump by seven and a half or greater than Donald Trump, then Bernie Marino will probably eke out a win. If this is Trump by six and a half or less, then Bernie Marino is in deep trouble of somehow choking a flip In a Trump by station, Sherrod Brown, I get he is a popular incumbent, especially in parts of the state that have abandoned Democrats, especially eastern Ohio in recent years. But he can't get those same margins anymore.
[00:32:06] And I really don't think that he's gonna get gonna be able to outrun Kamala Harris in the suburbs of Columbus or Cleveland or Cincinnati or even Dayton. Cool the point to a substantial level enough to where he would be able to win.
[00:32:28] Now granted, you know, Geraldo Rivera is a conservative Fox News analyst and he's endorsed Harrison Sherrod Brown for whatever reason. So maybe, maybe so. Maybe Sherrod Brown wins. He does have a very good shot to win. But I don't think he's favored. I think Bernie Marino is very nearly favored. I think Reyno takes it very narrowly. But do not be surprised to see Sherrod Brown pull that off. And the same thing goes for Texas. Look, I don't think Texas is ready to vote Democratic just yet.
[00:32:58] Like I don't think there has been enough effort put in such a national Democratic Party or the Texas Democratic Party, for what it's worth, to make that state go blue. People say Texas is not a bred state. States and non voting state. Partially true. But you also have to put in the effort to get those voters to turn out.
[00:33:18] And look, this is also based on a belief that I think Texas is going to be a lot closer than people give it credit for. The early voting numbers in Texas suggest pretty high turnout. Early voting numbers in quite a few states actually suggest pretty high turnout, which is a bit shocking to me because I thought, you know, this election will have kind of lower turnout compared to 2020 and that if that's not the case, then that might change a decent part of the electorate's complexion.
[00:33:45] But with Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, like I'm operating on the basis that Donald Trump wins the state of Texas, right. But he wins the state of Texas by about two to three points. That's where I'm operating on.
[00:34:05] And of course the big question is with Latinos because Democrats will obviously continue to make gains in the suppers, especially the Austin, San Antonio metro, the Dallas metro and the Houston metro, the Texas Triangle also in College Station in Killeen. But the question to ask with Latinos is first off, can Republicans continue to gains? And two, will he be making gains in South Texas, El Paso in the border region, the Rio Grande Valley, is it going to be concentrated to there or can he continue to make impressive gains with Latinos in Houston in the Dallas area and San Antonio and Austin as well, because it depends. Because I think they can get the South Texas plan right because of, you know, immigration and immigration and its increased salience in the issues pile.
[00:34:59] But if you can't do that with urban Latinos, especially like these Mexican American communities, then it becomes a little bit more challenging for Republicans, you know. And the second thing to consider is Kamala Harris is of half Indian descent, of half Asian Indian descent.
[00:35:22] And so that's going to help with the growing burgeoning, you know, Asian Indian communities in the Dallas Fort Worth metro, especially in Cullen and Denton county, two very crucial swing counties. By the way, I have an entire episode of why Texas could go Blue this year. I have an entire, it's the entire episode, I think it was like season one or season two or something is a one hour thesis on that. Go. What Go listen to that. I. Our Arager. It's a very, very interesting episode to go to. It's one of, I think one of my favorite episodes I've done, if I'm being completely honest.
[00:35:58] But, but they're also in Houston, especially, you know, Sugar Land in Fort Bend county is specifically as well as well as in, you know, as in the Austin metro as well, you know, north northern parts of Austin and southern Williamson county, like around Rock and areas like that.
[00:36:19] And also she is, you know, her father is black, she is half black. So that's obviously, you know, identity politics is certainly going to help. You know, Kamala Harris as well, she just did a rally on abortion rights in Houston that drew over 20,000 people and apparently hundreds of thousands, thousands on a wait list in Texas and people driving in from San Antonio and Dallas to Houston to the Houston Dynamo Stadium, which they're, they're an MLS team. And she filled that stadium. Beyonce came and endorsed Kamala Harris. So I don't know, there's a lot of pent up Democratic energy in Texas. So main lessons for 2026 and 2028. I mean, Ken Paxton's on the ballot in 2026 if you want to focus your efforts on taking him down. Just saying. There's also a bunch of state house and state senate races in Texas that you might want to go to this year. Just saying.
[00:37:11] But yeah, just because I don't think there's enough effort. I don't think Texas is ready.
[00:37:19] But I would be shocked, not surprised if it push over because of things that we might not be seeing with data but might be happening anecdotally.
[00:37:30] So yeah, basically that's where I'm also at with cynic control. I would be kind of shocked but not surprised if you catch my drift because of like or is it or is it kind of surprised but not shocked? I don't know whatever the phrase is, that's where I'm at with the Senate. I think Republicans will flip it. I would not be shocked if Democrats were somehow able to hold and if Democrats are able to hold it, I promise y'all I will be doing like with I'll have obviously do an episode on the post election analysis, you know, analysis and whatnot. And once all the results are finalized I'll go full, I'll go a full dive into what happened. But if the Democrats hold on to the Senate, oh boy, oh boy. I am going to roast Mitch McConnell over proverbially roast him over an open fire. I won't actually do it because I think he would freeze up before he even got to the before I even got to it. But yeah, that's where I'm at with the U.S. senate where I'm at with the U.S. house. I think the Democrats take it because I think almost all the toss ups break their way because almost all the toss ups or Biden districts, Biden won districts.
[00:38:49] I pegged the Democrats at 227 seats and the Republicans at 208 seats when this is all said and done. So let's go from, let's go from east to west coast. We'll start out in Maine. I because I think Jared golden nearly loses because I think his split ticket abilities dry up against Austin Terrio which again the French last name is gonna help with the French Canadian communities up north in Aristot County.
[00:39:20] But I wouldn't be surprised if golden held on. I mean Jared golden, you know, declined to say whether he would even vote for Kamala Harris. So that has probably turned off some Democrats from voting in that race which not great considering you probably need every single one of them you can Jared not exactly great political instinct things I would say. But yeah, he's not facing joke a joke candidate this time around. He is facing a former elected official for starters in Austin Terry I think he's a former state senator or state representative or something. Or something.
[00:39:54] Now someone has served in the main state legislature in northern Maine and I think Ontario ends up pulling it off by less than a point. But I would not be so but it would not be shocked to see Jared Gordon get another two year term.
[00:40:08] So New Hampshire, I mean there is both of those seats are rated likely Democratic as a consensus but the second issue, which is western New Hampshire, which is Concord, I mean, look, I mean, Maggie Goodlander is winning that by over double digits. Lily Dang Williams, the Republican nominee, former head of the Libertarians in Colorado or something, she, she is a joke. She is a total joke of a gambit.
[00:40:36] And Maggie Goodlander already proved in the primary and when Colin Van Osterm went negative on her, that tanked his primary campaign. And Maggie Goodlander is just going to do the same to Lily Tang Williams. Sorry, Republicans, but you kind of, kind of screw the pooch there a little bit with that.
[00:40:54] In the first issue of Chris Pop, Pappas will win. It'll be probably like nominally competitive, but not too close. Pappas will be fine. The Democratic incumbent there, the colorist 5th congressional district, Johanna Hayes against George Logan. A rematch from 2022, which Republicans did almost win. But the problem is it's not 2022. You also have presidential partisanship to contend with. I think Johanna Hayes will be fine in the rematch and George Logan goes to do whatever.
[00:41:22] I mean, I think he is nominally pro choice anyways, but too bad. Colorado Republicans also think Waterbury is in this district and guess what, it has a large Puerto Rican population. So again, kill Tony's impact everybody. New York.
[00:41:38] So the New York Democratic Party is one of the most incompetent political parties in the nation. And Mondaire Jones running in a Biden by 10 or 11 district in New York 17th district run against the Republican incumbent, Mike Lawler. You know, you should make him a wave, baby. The problem is Monterey Jones is also one of the most incompetent politicians in the nation. And now he is favored to blow a Biden by 11 district just by being kind of an idiot.
[00:42:08] And I do agree, I think that Mike Lala will get another term. It'll be very close. But I would not be, I would not be shocked if Mondaire Jones coasted off a bars and ship to win. I mean it does, it does have northern Westchester county in it, for the love of God. But again, there's also that Working Families Party candidate that's a Republican plant so bad that the Working Families Party themselves had to send out mailers and whatnot telling people, hey, you know, do not vote for the Working Families Party candidate. He is not endorsed by our party. I mean really is. I think it was a Republican operation to steal that nomination in Rockland and Putnam county take in particular. And they ended up getting it, getting it through. I mean, congratulations Mondaire Jones, you're an Absolute moron for not recognizing that.
[00:43:03] But yeah, but very incompetently run campaign. Running up against a competent campaign, annoying potentially to sue a lot of liberals is Michael Lawler. But I think he'll end up pulling it off people who I don't think will be pulling it off. Mark Molinaro, he's running against Josh Riley again. I'm sorry, he's done. I mean I get it. It's only a Biden by 4 district but as a taka in it and Molinaro is not nearly the amount of the type of politician that Mike Lawler is and Josh Riley is nowhere near as incompetent as mon Daredevil Jones. I think that Molinara ends up going in the night in the 19th district. The 18th district. Pat Ryan is a Democratic incumbent there. I think he'll be fine. He survived the 2022 red wave in New York so I think he'll be fine.
[00:43:49] 22nd Brandon Williams is running in a bottom by 11 and a half district or so. They did kind of in the latest round of redistricting kind of, you know, give him a tougher district. I think he's done against John Mannion that Syracuse and areas.
[00:44:05] I think, I think Utica is in that district as well. But you know, John Mania is probably going to win that. I think Brandon Williams is done. Plus he has some controversies himself. The 4th district, Anthony Despacito is the bottom of a 14 1/2 district that Anthony Despacito won pretty one narrowly ended up set in the 4th district to Southern Nassau County.
[00:44:26] But yeah, he's also died like he's done. You know, Laura Gillen has been working, you know, has been working that district and considering the fact that you also have Tom Swatse to help you in the third district, which Swatse will obviously hold, then I think Laura Gillen will end up winning it.
[00:44:46] The first district is not only competitive. Nick Lalota, the Republican incumbent. This is.
[00:44:52] This is Suffolk county, northern and eastern Suffolk county running up against Sean Avalon, former CNN commentator.
[00:44:59] And I think Loloto will hold it by like five points or so.
[00:45:03] We'll go over to New Jersey, the seventh district. I the fundamentals suggest that if you look at the polling, right, the polling that suggests Tom Keene's in a position hold the district against Sue Altman. The problem is they have this district tied at the presidential level and that's not going to happen. This is the left running bottom by forces district. And so if Sue Altman is going to run even with Kamala Harrison, she's going to win and I think Sue Altman will end up winning by a couple of points. I think this is going to be one of the sleeper upsets of the cycle that people only just now starting to catch up on. People including the Democratic, including the DCCC.
[00:45:40] Speaking of tilt Democratic districts, Pennsylvania's 8th district, which look Matt Cartwright I think will end up surviving by a couple of points. He's used to winning these kinds of races and you know, improving his script and whatnot, improving in the parts of Lutzer and there in the district and Rob Rushnahan isn't the worst candidate by any means. He's definitely not the best and but I don't think Bresling is going to be able to coast the partisanship. Cartwright, he knows how to win these races and I think he'll win this one. The seventh District, Susan Wells entrenching herself in the seventh seventh District. This is a Lehigh Valley in Carbon county especially with, especially with Hinchcliffe's comments about Puerto rico. Yeah, Ryan McKenzie, I mean you can't blame Tony Hinchcliffe for losing that district because you were probably going to lose it anyways because even when Susan Wild talked about schooling Republican leading Carbon county voters, she improved in Carbon county by a couple of blitz relative to 2020 which I find hilarious.
[00:46:42] But yeah, I mean Susan Wild will thank you for the free impressive win. Now 17th district out with Chris Delucia out in the west Beaver county and parts of Allegheny. He'll be fine. It's a buy on the 7 district that'll probably get. That will probably get blue or Delucio is a pretty strong incumbent. You'll be fine. The first district which is Bucks county in a sliver of Montgomery, Ryan Fitzpatrick is whatever reason still very strong. Their Democrats, they make somewhat of an effort this time around. So Fitzpatrick will probably win by mid single digits. But you know, if you really want to go out there, Fitzpatrick, Brian Fitzpatrick, kind of like the patron saint of Bucks county at this point you're going to have to try harder than that. Democrats, you're going to have to try harder. And the 10th district, I think Scott Berry loses the 10th district gonna be completely honest here. I think with his history being far right, you know, stealth made TV anchor. I've already explained it but previously but I think Scott Perry loses in Virginia. I think the 7th district, Eugene Vindman has too much money to lose basically and he'll end up beating Derrick Anderson by a fairly comfortable margin. I think the second District, Jen Kickens holds on the Republican and Smithy Carter Smisel. But do not be surprised if Cecil ends up winning.
[00:47:59] Do not be surprised because Republicans are apparently going down their late including Glenn Youngkin, Winston Sears and Jason Miares to try and campaign for Jen Kickens. They must be seeing something that I'm not doesn't apparently they don't think it looks good for them. Moving down to North Carolina then we'll go to Ohio. North Carolina, the first district this was redistricted by Republicans to be marginal Biden district because they want to knock out Don Davis without violating the completely violating the Voting Rights act and Voting Rights Act I'll get to when I talk about Alabama, Don Davis is proving assaulted a pretty strong incumbent. I think he wins by two to three points in that district. He'll outperform the top of the ticket with a conservative. You have a conservative black incumbent there and I think I think he'll be fine in Ohio. I think Democrats are going to hold on to the two districts. The first district is becoming safe Democratic. You have Greg Landsman, a not a moderate Democrat there coming up against Orlando Sousa who's kind of an idiot Republican nominee. So here's that there the 9th district northwest Ohio, Marcy Captor, she has a much more serious challenge this time but she will still probably, probably win by about three to five points. And the 13th district, whatever district Amelia Sykes is in thinks she'll hold on about five points. She had a very impressive win in 2022. For what it's worth, I think it's Madison Gizota Gilbert, I think I've talked about that before. Also I think Max Miller's margin of victory is under 10 points but that's neither here. Now Michigan, I think John James narrowly holds on in the 10th district again do not be surprised to see Karl Malinga, the Democrat get the upset that win there. In the 8th district I think Kristen McDonnell rivet will hold on to that district against Paul Young because I don't think Paul Young is a good candidate.
[00:49:48] And in the Senate district I think partisanship propels Curtis Hertel to a narrow victory against Tom Barrett. Do not be surprised to see Tom Barrett, the Republican win and flip that district to the Republicans. Also think Bill Hurzinga could go under a 10 point margin of victory. That's neither here. Now with Wisconsin, Derek Van orden in the 3rd district, southwest Wisconsin and also Stevens Point, I think he ends up surviving against Rebecca Cook by a couple of points. I would not be surprised to see him go down in an upset In Iowa there's a few Competitive races there. I want to Talk about the 1st District Southeast Southeast Iowa. I think baronet Miller Meeks does win by like one and a half to two points. But I would not surprised to see Christine Bohanna the Democrat get the upset when the fundamentals including the fundraising appointed this being tossed up for a while and Bohannon's running a really strong race there. The third district landed back in the Democrat I think takes out Zack Nunn narrowly. The third district which is Des Moines in a bunch of rural parts of southwest Iowa.
[00:50:50] Well in south Iowa to just be more general.
[00:50:54] So I do think I Democrats will get one district. It's a narrow Trump district. Zach Nunn actually kind of he did flip it against Sydney accident but that wasn't because he out before Trump went off act he underperformed it by a couple tenths of a percent.
[00:51:11] So yeah it'll depend on the borders and margin there how much Democrats can get out of the Polk County. But I think back on when nearly win that'll be one of the closest races of the cycle. Nebraska. I think this is the election that Don Bacon goes down down to Tony Vargas in the second district. I think Don Bacon's luck is running out. Like you can't, you can outrun a five point margin of victory but he can't outrun 10 to 12 point margins of victory which is what I think Kamala Harris is going to end up getting in the in the second district. Now we'll go to Florida which I think Annapolis Luna survives in the 13th district which is Pinellas county minus St. Petersburg. But with Whitney Fox the Democratic nominee there, I think she's got a chance to win because Annapolis Luna, as I've explained before is a total fraud, a total electoral fraud.
[00:52:03] And if you're underperforming the other parts of the ticket by 12 points, do not be surprised when you get caught flat footed. And Napoleon Luna knows this herself. Like she like good God, like wasn't she praising like Joe Biden like thanking him for like his assistance in the recovery from Hurricane Milton or something like good lord, good Lord. Like you don't go really public with that unless you know like oh crap, I've got to make some ventures otherwise I might lose the second district of Alabama. This is close to my backyard where I'm from. I'm in the first district but a very but I'm pretty pretty close to the second. This goes from the city of Mobile out to some rural areas out the city of Montgomery and in the Phoenix city, then Also Detroit the 2nd district, Shamari figures against Caroline Dobson. It's a by 12th district. Republicans have made some national Republicans made some effort to try and keep this but luck Shomari figures is going to win and he's going to win comfortably.
[00:53:03] I mean sometimes again you can't out run partisanship, especially when the Mobile and Montgomery parts of the district are only getting bluer and the Russell county portion might be getting bluer too.
[00:53:15] Like when it's in that case, I mean Caroline Dobson drives, you might, I mean you might get it to like mid to high single digits but only that. Only that you'll be lucky to get it in the mid single digits as well. I also want to talk about Louisiana six because this is another Voting Rights act mandated district. Louisiana Republicans saw what Alabama Republicans went through and they were like, nah, we also have beef with Garrett Graves so let's just get him out of office. So they redistricted the 6th sen away which goes from Shreveport, the city of Shreveport, black parts of Shreveport, all the way down to Baton Rouge and they drew it so that clear views could go to the US House because they like him and want to see him back there for whatever reason. So yeah, he'll win that easily. I think it's about 18 or so district. You didn't have to go to Shreveport to do that and also screw over Garrett Graves. As I've said before, I think I've explained the previous episodes. For those who don't know, Garrett Graves has beef with legislative Republicans and also he made some disparaging comments about Steve Scalise after he got shot at congressional baseball practice in 2017. So not great. Texas. I think Vicente Gonzalez holds on to the 34th district. Do not be surprised though, or do not be shocked if Meyer Flores is able to pull off the upset in Cameron county and other portions of South Texas.
[00:54:32] 15th Monica de la Cruz 9 should be flying against Michel Vallejo, but should be fine. And obviously Henry Cuerrell also should be fine running against a white guy in Laredo. Good luck with that.
[00:54:48] Let's go over to New Mexico. New Mexico second think Gabe Vasquez will survive in southern New Mexico, which goes in Albuquerque. That's why Donald Trump's doing the rally, so he can rally with Yvette Harrell. Yeah, there's at least some reason to be there. There is no reason to be in Salem, Virginia anyways. Colorado, the third District, I think Republicans will hold on there like three points because they're not running. Lauren Barber, she went to the 4th district. They have some other guy in there. But don't be shocked if Adam first, they would have pulled this off. The 8th district, Yadira Caravao should hold that for the Democrats. This is north of Denver and also like Greeley and Greeley and Brighton, those parts. But don't be surprised if Gabe Evans is able to flip that district as well. Arizona, I think this is a cycle that David Schweiger goes down and also think once in the first district and north Phoenix suburbs, I also think Juan Cisco money goes down to the six southeast Arizona Tucson suburbs. I think Amish Shah and Kristen Angle specifically will be able to win Eli Crane's race in the second Northern Arizona. I think he'll get saved by Avapai County. But Jonathan Nez is a strong and a strong candidate for the Democrats. The former president of the Navajo Nation. So don't be surprised if that race is closer than people expected as well.
[00:56:07] When we go over to Nevada, there's a reason why Republicans abandoned competing for those House races in the first third and fourth districts.
[00:56:16] It's because Dina Titus, Suzy Lee and Stephen Horsford will hold on to them. It was a really good, brutal gerrymandering job by the Democrats. And I can tell you Illinois Democrats was probably looking at that and saying, hmm, impressive, Nevada, because they also were Illinois Democrats gerrymandered their state. That 14 congressional representatives for the Democrats. The closest one is I think like the 13th or whatever is in northwestern Illinois. That one with Eric Sorensen. I think he'll be fine. He'll be. He'll be very fine. We'll go over to Montana, the first district, western Montana stretching from Bozeman out to Missoula.
[00:56:53] I think that Ryan Zeke ends up surviving. But do not be shocked if Monica Trandle pulls out the victory, especially with Jon Tester on the ballot. I have it going to Zinky Bike a point or so. Do not be surprised or shocked if Monica Chandel wins that.
[00:57:12] I'll go over to Washington. I'll have California last what it's worth. So just point that there Washington's third, I think Marie Gluson Camp Perez survives because he had midterm environment and all. So she's running against Joe Kenigan, who's a white national.
[00:57:27] He's kind of toned down that part a little bit. I wouldn't say much. And also these two people hate each other. They're probably gonna be running against each other for a while, especially if Kent's able to pull it off at a Trump by 4 district. But I think Goose And Kent Perez is going to narrowly hold on to this.
[00:57:45] If she loses narrowly because of burn ballot by burn ballots in Clark county in Vancouver that'll be a very sore sight for Washington. The national Democrats very, very sore sites that Joe Kent wins extremely narrowly. I mean you're gonna have people saying that that costs the election like who knows there might be some litigation, very expensive litigation on part of that. So just keep that in the back burner. In Oregon, the 5th district Lori Chavez Derimer is done. The Republicans probably going to lose. Janelle Biden I think she loses there. In Alaska Mayor Bo it's an interesting case. There's only one Republican candidate, there's a couple of Democrats votella and some random guy is only get like going to get like a percent of the vote or whatever and there's going to be an Alaskan independent candidate that's also running.
[00:58:33] So this will probably go to a one on one but Mary Paul told is still very popular. No and she won by 10 points in a Trump by 10 state and the 2022 midterms. Will she be able to do that? I think she win I don't think 10 points. I think she win also think Alaska is going to be a lot closer than it was in 2020. I think more like a five to seven point more handed victory. That margin is very important. This will probably be one of the last house races called and I know I'm going a little bit over time so I run through California quickly. I think that John Duarte, David Valad, Mike Garcia, I think they're all dead. I think they're all dead on arrival. Not so much Garcia but I do think he still loses. I think that Michelle Steele and Ken Calvert are going to narrowly lose. I think for Republicans. I think Dave Minn for the Democrats is going to end up kind of being fine. It's a Biden by 11 district. He's not mondier Jones level of incompetent. And I think Kevin Kylie in the third district the Republican will survive. But watch out if the Democrats get a surprise upset it could be in that district with Jessica Morris also Young Kim survives pretty comfortably in the 40th district because the Democrats are literally running a candidate called Joker. A joker candidate for the love of God.
[00:59:53] See I had to run through that quickly. So yeah, now to the presidential. I know we've just hit about an hour into this. In fact probably a little bit longer than an hour. I do apologize. But this is the important part. This is what y'all want to see what is my prediction?
[01:00:14] Republicans 219, Democrats 319. Yes, I do think they pick up all the swing states. Let me go through them. And for the record, I have Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, all safe Democratic. I'm not entertaining that possibility. I'm not the reason why I think Democrats will win Nevada. I think it is actually the most endangered of the swing states for Democrats. The early voting data looks pretty good for the Republicans, but I want to caution Republicans, it looked good for you in 2022 and then you lost the Senate race by less than a point. That Trump won. Electorate mean not exactly great news for you. And also Democrats have been doing a lot better in the past few days of early in person and mail voting because Democrats are returning their ballots later. We saw this in the primary and that could create some false impressions for Republicans. In addition, there is a big growth in this other population, not Democrats or Republicans, but independents or people registered with the third party. Those have grown. Those are more likely to be young, those are more likely to be non white voters.
[01:01:23] If that's the case, these could break disproportionately for Democrats. And if they do, that changes the whole game about how you view Nevada's early votes. You have to view them in a similar manner to Arizona where Republicans have the registration edge but haven't able to win too many statewide elections in the past, you know, six years.
[01:01:45] So that's why I think Democrats win. I think Trump does make slight gains, but I think he ends up losing it by two points or like one to two points to Kamala Harris.
[01:01:57] As far as Arizona is concerned, polls have Donald Trump up here by a point or two. I think Kamala Harris wins Arizona by three to five points. Now I'll tell you why you're not going to get those huge gains amongst Arizona Latinos. It was Arizona. Arizona was like the one state where Republicans didn't make too many gains with Latinos, especially in Phoenix.
[01:02:16] You got a flop there. And Democrats got enough gains among white college educated suburbanites in North Phoenix, Dees Valley and the Tucson suburbs and Flagstaff as well in order to win.
[01:02:29] Those swings are continuing. The main reason why Carrie Lake lost is because she tanked in these exact areas.
[01:02:37] And Republicans don't have an answer. The state Republican Party is a dysfunctional right wing mess. And I say right wing because you're alienating yourself from those McCain Republicans, including Jeff Flake, who was just out there campaigning for Kamala Harris.
[01:02:56] So again, not great, not great news. We have active Republicans, various group and Republican strategists contending that a lot of Mormons could break off from the Republicans and vote for Kamala Harris. Guess which area is a lot of Mormons? The East Valley. Mesa. For the love of God. Like, the mayor of Mesa is a Republican. So Trump by ninth city and he's endorsing Kamala Harris. He's campaigned for, like, what are y'all doing?
[01:03:25] Like, I think people are gonna be shocked at how blue Arizona is. I think people will be shocked that I think the polls are dead wrong in Arizona. I think Kamala Harris gonna win it comfortably. And a similar thing in Georgia.
[01:03:39] The reason why I think Kamala Harris wins Georgia is just the Atlanta metro. It's just growing and it's getting bluer.
[01:03:46] You know, a lot of these early voting statistics, they're starting to look pretty good for Democrats where these early votes are growing. You know, there's rural Republican areas, especially north Georgia. Georgia always have high turnout and they did pretty high turnout in the early going, but they've slowed down a bit. South Georgia rule rules have slowed down a little bit.
[01:04:05] There are still problem areas for Democrats like, you know, Columbus, Albany and Augusta and parts of Savannah, but where it's pretty good for them is the Atlanta metro and another area, Athens, Clark County. University of Georgia's isn't playing a lot of catch up the past few days. Great news for Democrats.
[01:04:23] And I think that, you know, a lot of these white college educated areas in Cobb county, north, like east Cobb, north Fulton, northwest Cobb, south Cherokee, south Forsyth, a lot of Asian Indians in south Forsyth and north Fulton, especially the Johns Creek area, as well as Gwinnett county, which is Asphora melting pot, one of the biggest melting pots in the country. And also DeKalb County.
[01:04:48] Yeah, I mean, what a Democratic hydrogen bomb. Clayton County's in slack a little bit. But I do think Democrats end up flipping Fayette county, which is to the south of Atlanta. I think Democrats win Georgia. I think they want about 2 to 4 points at the federal level. That 2026 Senate race between Brian Kemp and John Ossoff, that's going to be one of the most expensive Senate races we've ever seen in our entire lives. I'll just tell you that right now.
[01:05:13] The reason why I think Democrats will win Wisconsin is because the Democratic party in Wisconsin simply better run with a much better ground game. Dane county votes, as always, that's the one thing they do that's like, that is their culture is to vote in literally every single election.
[01:05:31] Milwaukee is catching up with regards to the state, you know, overall turnout, it is about average to the state, which is great news for Democrats.
[01:05:40] And with what the Washington primary. I talked to the Washington primary. The one thing, it's one of the one things it tells us is that don't expect the Democrats to collapse with white working class voters in the upper Midwest, which is great news for Democrats because what is there a lot of in Wisconsin? White working class voters, rural white working class voters in Wisconsin, A lot of those. If the Democrats don't fall with them as I expect them to and I think they'll win Wisconsin by 1 to 2 points. Why do I think Democrats will win Michigan? Two things. One, their vote will swing right. It'll swing right about 40 to 50 points. Most of that will not be because of Gaza. Most of that is because of social conservatism. We saw that in 2022. These areas like East Dear will only swung 30, 40 points to the right and Gretchen Whitmer still won by 11 points. So yeah, when you see those margins, don't freak out. They happened in 2022 and Democrats were fine. It was a localized blue wave in Michigan for the love of guy, also because Republicans nominated some God awful candidates. Christina Caramo for Attorney General. The Michigan Republican Party in the Civil War like you also have to figure out western Michigan exists. Grand Rapids and its suburbs, they exist. The Cherry coast also exists. They will trend left pretty significantly. Detroit suburbs, Oakland county exist. Livonia exists. In northwest Wayne County, Ann Arbor, Lansing, they exist. Kalamazoo, it exists. Barry and Harper exist.
[01:07:15] Flint exists.
[01:07:17] I mean the Republican. I just don't think they can get enough votes to win in Michigan. I think it's a harder state for them to win. I don't think they'll get it.
[01:07:27] I do not think they'll get it. I don't think they'll come particularly close. Remember Joe Biden won it by 3%. I think Kamala Harris is going to get it to about a 3 to 5% margin of victory in Michigan.
[01:07:38] Why do I think Democrats will win Pennsylvania? Why don't think Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania? For one for one it the Puerto Ricans in North Philly, in the Lehigh Valley and south central Pennsylvania and in the Northeast as well. I mean if those areas swing left. Kiss your hopes in Pennsylvania goodbye Donald Trump. But also as I've explained before, you know the suburban swings left were amongst college educated suburbanites in Allegheny county, especially the north hills and in the Philly collar suburbs, you know, the Kala County, I mean especially like middle and north Bucks and like I should say, central bucks, not middle box. Montgomery County, Outer Delaware, Chester county, main luck.
[01:08:25] It's rough for Republicans. There is a path to winning Pennsylvania, but you need to do things that I don't think the Trump campaign is capable of doing.
[01:08:35] And why do I think the Democrats will win North Carolina? Well, I think it could go either way in truthfulness. But if gun to my head, I think the Democrats win like three tenths of a percent because you have down ballot coattails. Josh Stein's a popular Democratic Attorney General. Mark Robinson is Mark Robinson. So Republicans are going to get no help from their down ballot again. Kamala Harris nationally is also pretty popular. She's neutral to even positive in most of the polls. Donald Trump is negative. Those undecided voters are going to more likely break towards the candidate they feel the most positive about.
[01:09:11] That candidate is Kamala Harris. In addition, yes, I know western North Carolina got dumped on by Hurricane Helene and they're still trying to recover from it. So voter turnout is going to be down. So those voter turnout numbers are going to be somewhat unreliable because they've been artificially lowered by a lean. But Asheville still going to be a bunk of Democratic votes. Sherry Beasley did better in certain areas of western North Carolina than Joe Biden did. Just saying.
[01:09:39] The only reason why Cheri Beasley lost in 2022 is because Black voter turnout collapsed. If it didn't, she probably would have beaten Ted. But and I think the Democrats will get enough black voter turnout. You also, there's Durham is going to swing left because the college students are back in. Same thing with Orange County. You also have Wake county is going to continue to swing left. Mecklenburg is continuing to swing left. Cabrus could even vote for some Democrats. It'll vote for Josh Stein for sure. But if it votes for Kamala Harris, then consider the state wrapped up for her. You also have to Union counties or Republican counties going to swing left. The Charleston area, like areas closer to Charleston and those suburbs and exurbs are swinging left.
[01:10:21] And like, like southern Iredell county swinging left very much so. And like Greensboro, Winston, Salem, High Point, you know, even areas like Boone and Whatnot, Wilmington, you know, parts of Fayetteville, like these areas are swinging left enough to counteract the densely populated Republican rural areas. And I said with the North Carolina Democratic Party being run by very compact people like Anderson Clayton, North Carolina Republicans, they have a lot of, you know, they have a lot of overturn because their guy just got hired to run the rnc, Michael Watley, and they Have a new people coming in and also Democratic ground game a lot better than Republicans because the Republicans ground game is basically let Elon Musk pack a bunch of people up in U haul in U haul trucks and make them confused at to what they're actually doing. Which by the way I'm pretty sure that's a crime, Elon.
[01:11:20] Pretty sure that's a crime. I mean we will see. You know what's the American pack that Elon Musk runs that supporting Trump. We'll see if that is able to make any impact. But if it doesn't, Elon's gonna be in some very hot water. The owner of Twitter will be, I refuse to call it X Corp. Technically it's X or X Corp, but I call it Twitter. You only can be used in very hot water. As for other states, I think Texas is lean Republican. Florida is likely Republican for the reasons I mentioned earlier. So Ohio likely Republican. Alaska likely Republican. I've already described why Kansas, I have is likely Republican because it's one of these prairie states that swinging left, you know, very suburban population, especially around Kansas City that's swinging humongously to left. Johnson county is by far and away turning out better than everybody else.
[01:12:10] And Kansas is already pretty pro choice state as it is. So do not be surprised to see that state go down to a single digit margin of victory, which I think it will. Also Nebraska's first district I think is going to be likely Republican. This is Lincoln. This is some rural areas. These are southern Omaha suburbs showing the way so that Republican Republicans can feel comfortable holding it, but only for like a few more cycles because these areas are swinging wildly to the left. Do not be surprised if Nebraska's first district is a lot closer than people give more. It will be in single digits, could even be in mid single digits this year.
[01:12:46] Also mains first is lead Republican by margin, I think likely Republican by, you know, probability.
[01:12:55] You know, the question is what is it going to be like? If it's going to be like Trump by five or something like that, then Jared Gordon probably loses. If it's Trump by like 4, Trump by 3, then Jared Gordon could end up being the winner. We'll just have to wait and see. So those are all my predictions. This is the last episode I'm putting out before the presidential election, before the general election.
[01:13:20] So let me leave you with one more thing, one more thing before I go. Which county am I going to be looking at the most in terms of early indications about how the election is going to go? Hamilton County Indiana. I'm going to get closer to the mic for this one is that this is a usually rock ribbed Republican county that hasn't gone for a Democrat since Woodrow Wilson.
[01:13:48] 19. 1912.
[01:13:54] Yeah, it's been that long.
[01:13:59] It's been that long. Or is it 1960? I don't know. It's been well over a hundred years since Democrats last won Hamilton county and that was only because Teddy Roosevelt was splitting the Republican vote there.
[01:14:14] But Donald Trump has come in and made this county competitive, especially because this is just directly north of Indianapolis Carmel and Fishers flipped from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden in 2020.
[01:14:30] How those areas vote, how they, how much they vote for Democrats is going to be crucial. I'm also looking at Westfield in general. I think that area is going to be very, very close. I don't wish Trump by 11 in 2020, but it's got the demographics of college education to show for being a lot closer than people might expect. Sand county was only like Trump by 7 in 2020 after being like Trump by 17 or 18 in Trump by 20 in 2016.
[01:15:04] So let me give you some benchmarks for Hamilton County. If Trump's winning the county by five points or more, he's won the election and it's not particularly close.
[01:15:13] If Trump wins the county by three to five points, he's probably won.
[01:15:18] If Trump's winning the county by less than three points, then it's not a good sign for Democrats. But you can't call the election over yet. If Kamala Harris flips the county historic result. If she flips it by less then 2 to 3 points, you can't really say much like a good flip. Suburban schist will continue, but you can't say she's won the election yet. If she wins about three to five points, like, okay, you know, then she's probably favored to win the election. If she wins it by five to six points, it's like, okay, she's probably won the election. And six to seven points and more is landslide territory.
[01:15:56] So it's the one county out watch. I'll be watching other counties as well, specifically Vandenberg County, Indiana in the southwest, Evansville, Allen county in the northeast. That's where Fort Wayne is. I'll also be watching Lake county in the northwest, that's where Gary is to see, you know, any further slippage with Latino and most definitely Mexican American and black voters in Lake county as well as white working class voters in the south of the county. Also be looking at St. Joseph county to see how South Bend goes, you know, see how that area goes. Also watch Boone county, because I think that'll go to single digits. That's where Zionsville is. Zionsville will vote for Kamala Harris. It's a question of how much.
[01:16:39] And Ohio, I'll watch Delaware county north of Columbus, similar to Hamilton, although a little bit less Republican, a little bit less swinging to the left as well. It'll be very close no matter what I think. But if Kamala Harris wins, that be a very good sign for her. I'll also be watching Monongahela county in West Virginia. That's where West Virginia University is. Kamala Harris should win that. And if she doesn't, she's lost the election, just depending on how much she wins it. By Franklin County, Kentucky, that's where Frankfort is, a state capital. Also be very interested to watch. That will be very close no matter what. So those are just some of the counties I will be watching in some of the earliest states whose polls close. In North Carolina, obviously, I'll be watching Cabarets. I'll be watching New Hanover. I'll be watching Johnston, which is a Republican county south of southeast of Raleigh that's been swinging to the left because it's getting more suburbanized, especially in areas like Clayton. I'll be watching a few of those counties I mentioned previously as well.
[01:17:34] So, and obviously in Georgia, I'll be watching everything.
[01:17:39] And New Hampshire as well. I'll be watching some of those talents in the Southeast that are marginally for Trump that probably will and could vote for Kamala Harris. So this was a longer episode than expected. All right, so the next time you hear me, we will know who won the presidential election. Do you believe that?
[01:17:58] Can you believe the next time we do a Pulse of the Nation episode, we're going to be seeing how four years have gone by, how things have shifted, shifted. What is the national environment? How do different states vote? And not just by who won it, by how much.
[01:18:15] What are the stories to come out of this presidential election out of these results, in particular, the Senate, the House, the governor's races, the state House, the state Senate, the city councils, these mayorships, these local races, county commissions, county councils, those stories. Some of them will end up still being, you know, decided once we do the next episode. But most of them will have already been told.
[01:18:42] And it's. You're getting excited, but you also get nervous when you cover something like this because this is it.
[01:18:52] You know, this is one of the more critical elections and in the United States history. Whoever wins this election will preside over the Summer Olympics in LOS ANGELES, the 250th anniversary of the United States independence, not to mention a lot of other very powerful ceremonial events.
[01:19:14] So whoever wins this election will have really an unprecedented ability to shape the direction that American politics goes in for the next generation.
[01:19:29] And the fact is, next time I come up here next Thursday, which episodes will be released Every weekend? For sure. We just record them a couple of days in advance so our production team can do whatever editing they need to do.
[01:19:44] But we'll know. We'll know who won the residency, even if the networks don't call it. We will know. I will guarantee that to you.
[01:19:52] We will know who the next President of the United States will be.
[01:19:56] We will know more or less who won every state. Unless some of these states are incredibly close.
[01:20:05] Let me tell you, Georgia is going to count faster than people expect. Just saying. Pennsylvania will count faster than people expect. We'll have a call in Pennsylvania on election night. We'll have a call in Georgia on election section nine.
[01:20:17] I'll promise those two things. If I'm wrong, smite me. But even if we don't have a call, we'll know.
[01:20:23] We will know.
[01:20:25] That's the thing.
[01:20:28] I almost don't want to end this because you're just at this episode because you're sort of like delaying the inevitable. But let's not delay it any longer. Thank you for listening to season four episode six with us. Season four episode Episode seven is going to be an immediate post election analysis, a post mortem of what happened and why. Why did someone win the presidential election? Why did someone lose?
[01:20:55] And all of the backlash, all of the effects, the counter effects and everything that will happen as a result of the aftermath of the 2024 general election. Thank you for listening. We have just taken the pulse of the nation. See you next time when we will know our President elect.
[01:21:22] Any opinions expressed in this program are those of the host and do not represent the thoughts or opinions of 90.7, WVUA or the University of Alabama, WVUAFM Tuscaloosa.
