Pulse of the Nation S04 E02: A Day of Scandal

[00:00:00] Speaker A: WVUAFM Tuscaloosa any opinions expressed in this program are those of the host and do not represent the thoughts or opinions of 90.7 WVUA or the University of Alabama. [00:00:18] Speaker B: Hello, everybody, and welcome to season four, episode two of Pulse of the nation. I'm Brayden Vick, the host of your one stop shop for weekly political news. The first thing we're going to get up, let's just get straight to the point. Donald Trump is going to be attending the Georgia game here on September 28. This will be the first time in about five years that he's gone to Tuscaloosa for an Alabama football game, the last being that game of the century loss against LSU. We're down 33 to 13 at the half. And yeah, it is opinions of the president aside, the former president aside, that is going to be a logistical and security nightmare. The University of Alabama confirm this on Thursday. Katie Britta think tweeted out on Wednesday. And what this is going to end up being is the Senate Republicans are going to try to basically make this a little bit of a fundraiser with Katie Britt and Tommy Toobrill, the senators from Alabama, and Steve Daines, the republican senator for Montana and the head of the National Republicans Senate Committee, the NRSC, which is the major fundraising arm for the republican Senate candidates. Republicans trying to win her favor to flip the US Senate this year with the ungodly favorable map that they have. Like, what do you, what have you got to do? Just win three of Nevada, Montana, Ohio, Texas and Florida. Think he can manage. Republicans should manage that. I say, should. I say should because we did just get morning consult polls on Thursday that had not just Sherrod Brown up in Ohio by a couple of points. That didn't just have Jackie Rosen walloping her republican opponent, Stan Brown, by twelve or 13 points, but also Texas. Colin Allred was up by a point 45% to 44% over republican Senate incumbent Ted Cruz. That is the first time I could ever remember a democratic state candidate leading any statewide race in Texas. Yeah, when election, Twitter and politics, Twitter saw that poll. Just that. Oh, all read by one. Everybody went nuts. Like what? But yeah, don't think Republicans should be. [00:02:39] Speaker C: In too much trouble to flip the Senate. [00:02:41] Speaker B: Although, granted, it might be a lot more trouble than they would have liked, given the map. But Trump is coming to the Georgia game and University of Alabama has already urged everybody to get there early. And I will back this up myself. If you're just trying to get there like an hour before, you might not be able to get the game. So make sure, you know, next, you know, Friday night, Friday the 27th, your phones are charged and everything. Yeah, everything. Ready to go. Considering a secret service, you're probably not going to be able to get away with some of the stuff that you're able to get away with, considering the US Secret Service is going to be helping run security. And for anybody that was here during 2019, I think you all know what that was like. So, yeah, this is gonna come on the heels of another attempt on Donald Trump's life, although this one is nowhere near as successful as the first one in Butler, Pennsylvania. This was outside of his golf course at Mar a Lago. And I'll be honest, the guy never even got close to even getting an angle to shoot Trump. The guy I don't even think saw Donald Trump. He was just the guy who had a gun outside, outside of Mar a Lago. Secret Service spotted them. They pointed their rifles at him. I think they shot at him. The guy freaked out, fled, and was arrested in a nearby county, in Martin county, just north of Palm Beach county. And he is going to be in jail for quite a long time. He is kind of screwed. He's not p. Diddy. Levels of screwed, but he's still pretty screwed. But, so, yeah, that is happening. And, I mean, the next time we'll have an update on Pulse of the nation, Donald Trump will have already gone to the Georgia game, and after that would just be aftermath at this point. So that's Tuscaloosa related news for you. Speaking of, you know, you know, local events with national consequences. Let's turn over to New Jersey and the 10th congressional district. This is based in Newark, mostly. A special congressional election was held here on Wednesday to determine the replacement for the late representative Donald Payne Junior, a Democrat. This is a deeply democratic district. Joe Biden won it by over 60 points, over a 60 point margin of victory in 2020. So you can tell. Extremely, extremely democratic. This goes into. This is Essex county. This is parts of Union county as well as parts of Jersey City in Hudson county. Just to the way it's drawn is kind of weird like that. The Democrat and Republican running here, the Democrat was Lamonica McIver. The Republican was Carmen Bukow. Monica McIver, if you can tell with this as being Newark, very, very easily won. And she outperformed President Biden by about three percentage points. 2.7% to be. Exactly. She easily won from the first returns. Like, okay, yeah, she's won. And it's not even gonna be anywhere near levels. Of course, why would I talk about a random special election in September. It's because if you listen to what I was talking about on this podcast in season three, and I think probably in season two as well, you will know I talk extensively about the importance of special elections. Special elections are so important in giving you a gauge of what the national environment is going to be. I talked about the Washington primary last episode and how it is such a great indicator of what a national environment at the US House level is going to be. Special elections are very similar to that. They give you another good gauge of what the national environment is going to be. And we haven't had a special election of any kind that was contested by Democrat and a Republican since, I think, last June in Colorado's fourth congressional district, with Greg Lopez getting the win and an out performance, an over performance of Donald Trump against the democratic nominee, Trisha Calavers. So, yeah, what does this mean for November? Probably not much. It's just one election. But you put it with the other dozens of special elections, and a pattern starts to emerge. Democrats are overperforming 2020. That was with Biden on the ballot, and that was with Nal Kamala Harris on the ballot. The thing that really interests me most is that if you look at the precincts, if you look at really granular details, you could see where Lamonica MacGyver was outperforming Biden the most. Unsurprisingly for those of you who are political junkies, it was in college educated, wider areas like the town of Verona, for example, and parts of West Orange, really, and Montclair as well. Really, really great indicators that this, you know, suburban problem, this college educated voter problem with the Republicans, it's not going away. And at this point, this is just another piece of evidence. Like, this isn't me just extrapolating from one special election saying, oh, well, the Democrats are going to win Hamilton County, Indiana, or something. Not, it's not like that. It's just, oh, here's another piece of evidence that Republicans are going to struggle with college educated voters like they did in 2020. Now, the Republicans over formed around most of Newark and parts of, you know, East Orange and the city of Orange, but that was mostly due to there was two and two black independent candidates getting about 3% of their vote combined. And that was most of the reason for any underperformance by Lamonica MacGyver. And one of the independents is pretty much a Democrat in all but name. So pretty good result for a Democrat. You're looking at this, say, hmm, you know, this is pretty good. This is a very urban district. Majority minority, think majority black, 52% black, 22% Hispanic Latino. So looking at this result, you know, pretty good. Yes and no. Like five to 6% turnout. I get it. But it's just another piece of evidence. And Carmen Bucco, the republican nominee, he's not even from the district. He's from Nutley in northeastern Essex county. And that's a pretty swinging area by itself. I don't want it before points, but Nutley's not in the 10th congressional district. But, hey, at least he got on the ballot. That's all I say. He did get on the ballot. That is more than can be said for seven of nine congressional districts in Massachusetts where the Republicans don't even have a candidate. And I thought the Democrats were bad for leaving the. For leaving multiple congressional districts in this state uncontested for multiple years. I look at Massachusetts Republicans, I'm thinking, what are y'all doing? But, yeah, we'll be discussing us House. We will be discussing, you know, us Senate, which. Let's go ahead and kind of, kind of do that now. Just give you a general overview of not really, like, the districts in contention, but really, you know, just sort of where it lies. The US House right now is a toss up, but I think it's tilting democratic considering that, yes, the Republicans failed to pass yet another continuing resolution to fund the government. Yes, I know. Shocking. It's not like this has happened several times before in the Kevin McCarthy and the Mike Johnson special speakerships. If you want to know more about how Kevin McCarthy speakership ended up crumbling in a ball of flames, then, yeah, I will tell you, like, I will tell you, we have covered all of that in previous episodes, like season three, if I remember correctly, was the one which had the McCarthy speakership just completely implode. But, yeah, that was because you couldn't, couldn't pass continuing resolutions, or you had significant republican dissent over continuing resolutions. This one had, I think, about like 15 to 20, probably 14 Republicans opposed the continuing resolution along with unanimous opposition to all from all Democrats. Democrats opposed a continuing resolution because it had the save act in it. That's an act that would ban, I think, undocumented migrants from voting in federal elections when undocumented migrants are already banned from voting in federal elections. So Democrats just thought of it as, quote, a moot point and also to try and demagogue against the undocumented. Even Henry Cuellar and Josh Gottheimer, they voted against the continuing resolution. If you want to know how unified the Democrats were. But yeah, there's just a stretch of Republicans that don't want to have continuing resolutions for whatever, any reason. And this is going to play into efforts to keep the US House, which it's not looking great. With all the chaos the Republicans have gone under, Democrats are starting to compete to try and wade in the waters. In Trump won midwestern districts. Iowa's first, Iowa second, Wisconsin's third are three examples of such where they think they can catch the Republicans sleeping. And also Wisconsin's first. For whatever reason, those are areas where they think, you know, Republicans are running weaker races or stronger democratic fundraisers. And given, you know, the fact that Kamala Harris is now the democratic nominee, Democrats are thinking in Michigan's 10th as well. In Macomb county, southern and central Macomb county, marginal Trump district. John James is being commented there in the 10th. Democrats are thinking, you know, we've got an opportunity, you know, knock off some Republicans. Republicans we might not have thought we could knock off before. And some of the early districts to watch, two in Virginia, the second and the 7th. The second is Tidewater region, Hampton Roads, you know, southeastern Virginia, Virginia beach. This is Jen Kiggins district Republican. She's running against Missy Connor Smasol there. Kiggins has been seen as a favorite to win. You know, Virginia second has been determined. Whoever holds Virginia second has sold the House for, I think, over a decade, God knows how long now. So, yeah, very swingy district here. Kagan's looking to hold on to it. Virginia 7th, Virginia Republicans think they can knock off Democrats there. It's an open seat. ABigail Spamberger, the representative, is vacating it to run for governor in 2025. The Democrats nominated Eugene Vindman, the brother of Alexander Vindmane is quite, you know, crucial to the story of the first Trump impeachment. And Eugene Vindman decided to run. He got a bunch of resist, low money and he ended up winning. And the Republicans are nominating Derek Anderson. I think he was a state lawmaker at, you know, at the point that he's running for Congress. That is certainly pretty competitive. Think the Democrats are favored in the 7th. Republicans are favored in the second. If the Republicans knock offendment in the 7th, if Democrats are able to get kaggins out of there in the second, then that would be, those would be pretty good indicators for the US House of Representatives. Also Florida's 13th congressional district, another one to watch early. This is supposed to be a Trump by eight district, or Trump by six and a half or whatever. And the incumbent here is a far right representative by the name of Anna Paulina Luna. She is running against Whitney Fox, the democratic nominee. And I haven't talked about it on pulse of nation much, but Anna Paulina Luna, I do not think is a good electoral performer. I think she's one of the worst electoral performers that Republicans have in federal elected office. We will get to bad electoral or expectedly bad electoral performers later in the, later in the show. But Anna Paulina Luna, this 2022 Florida was like r by 15 to r by 20, and she barely outran Donald Trump. She won by eight points against Eric Lynn. And in that environment when Democrats basically didn't turn out, that was pretty abysmal. Like, I get Charlie, Chris is from Pinellas county, but he didn't do well. Like, it didn't help him whatsoever against Ron DeSantis at all. And Anna Paulina Louis district, that's sort of a lean Republican. If Democrats pull off the upset there, and there are some polls indicating that race might actually be a tossed up, then if Vanapolina Luna goes down, that bodes very, very, very badly for Republicans hopes at achieving a majority in November. Speaking of not great electoral quality candidates, Mark Robinson. Wow. The republican nominee for governor of North Carolina. And that's locked in because as of this point, the deadline, the federal deadline to send out military and overseas ballots that has passed. You're locked in with Mark Robinson as your nominee. You're locked in with the North Carolina Republicans. All the stories that came out on Thursday. Wow. Oh, my God. Okay, so let's start off with the first thing. The first thing is that he, a lot of these comments were on an adult, let's just say an adult content site because I'm not trying to get fined or anything or pull off the air. So, yeah, warning, this is going to discuss a lot of adult content and also a ton of, you know, homophobic, racist, you know, whatnot, things that Mark Robinson said. This is only account many soldier. M I n I s o l d r. This is from K File and Kaczynski. Some of it is not. But most of this is. So first off, I think it was like nude African, nudeafrica.com or something like that. That was the website. That's the first thing. Second thing, Mark Robinson on this adult. [00:16:39] Speaker C: Content site called himself a black Nazi. [00:16:44] Speaker B: Okay, not great. Mark Robinson, you're already off to a very, very bad start. Very, very bad start. I mean, literally calling yourself black killer pretty much is, I will say, not a great way to endear yourself to the jewish community, especially considering your opponent in the November general election, Attorney General Josh Stein, is jewish. Not a great one there, Mark, but we got so much further to go with this guy. [00:17:17] Speaker C: Third off. [00:17:18] Speaker B: Third off, Mark Robinson is revealed himself to be a peeping Tom. This is just stuff he himself said on this adult content site. These aren't people making accusations against Robinson. This is just what Robinson said. This was like 2008 to 2012. So this is a while back, but he still said these things. [00:17:41] Speaker C: Third thing he said himself, he was a beeping Tom, 14 years old. [00:17:45] Speaker B: He goes into women's locker room, peeps there for like an hour straight, and this happens twice. Again, not great. I get you were 14 years old, but, you know, trying to run as a godly candidate when you discuss yourself being a peeping Tom is not exactly the best course of action, I would say. And also, this is just an exercise in recognizing that the Internet is, in fact, forever. [00:18:13] Speaker C: Fourth of all. Fourth of all, for all of the. [00:18:19] Speaker B: Virulently transphobic and homophobic things this guy. [00:18:24] Speaker C: Said, mark Robinson apparently likes adult content. [00:18:30] Speaker B: Of that involves trans people for whatever reason. I not gonna go any further with that point. That will be up to your imagination. [00:18:44] Speaker C: Alright. Fifth of all, he doesn't. [00:18:49] Speaker B: For Donald Trump calling Mark Robinson Martin Luther King Junior on steroids, Mark Robinson didn't have much nice things to say about MLK Junior. In fact, he had a nickname for MLK Junior, Martin Lucifer. And you could probably guess what the k stands for. Yeesh. I mean, I mean, that is definitely a very low blow. 6th thing about this is that this. [00:19:26] Speaker C: Guy, apparently Mark Robinson supported slavery and bringing it back. Like, not like, not like any other form, like actual chattel slavery. And not only that, not only that, this guy said that if he could, could, he would buy a few. [00:19:47] Speaker B: Wait. Oh, my God, y'all. Like, this guy literally said he'd support bringing back slavery and being a slave owner on these chats. [00:19:58] Speaker C: Like, and this is all on an. [00:20:00] Speaker B: Adult content website, mind you. And we're not talking about fetishes yet. 7th of all, related to number one, because first point is that he called himself a black Nazi. [00:20:14] Speaker C: 7Th point is that he would prefer Adolf Hitler's leadership to that of Barack Obama. Dude, dude, I don't think I need. [00:20:29] Speaker B: To explain why that could be such a hellacious, you know, argument to make against Mark Robinson. If you're the Stein camp and you're reading this, like, did we just basically have a Luigi wins by doing nothing moment? And I'll get to why in a second. [00:20:50] Speaker C: 8Th of all, yes, this rabbit hole goes deeper. 8th of all, it is revealed. [00:20:59] Speaker B: It is revealed that Mark Roberts Robinson apparently likes to cheat on his spouse, which again, for someone who wants to be very godly and whatnot, it is not exactly the best thing to do. Let's just go there. If you have an email registered with Ashley Madison, which for those who don't know that is a website for married people that are seeking affairs. Not exactly. Not exactly the brightest moment for Mark Robinson. [00:21:34] Speaker C: To be clear, his gubernatorial campaign has. [00:21:37] Speaker B: Already been marred by scandal after scandal after scandal related to crimes related to his views and whatnot. Like North Carolina, Democrats have pretty much unloaded the clip on Mark Robinson, but this goes to a whole other level. 9th of all, right. [00:21:56] Speaker C: 9Th of all, Mark Robinson on that. [00:22:00] Speaker B: You know, adult content, chat room or whatever, he talks about how not only is he cheating on his wife at. [00:22:08] Speaker C: The time, he's cheating on his wife with his sister in law and, and, and was usually having relations with a sister in law and another woman. This guy is an actual nominee for North Carolina's governorship. Like he didn't withdraw his name from the ballot. He didn't. And tend, first of all, yes, this goes deeper. This is where the fetish part comes in. How do I say this? But we're gonna have to put a disclaimer, alright? We're gonna have to put a disclaimer. [00:23:00] Speaker B: That we are talking about content that. [00:23:03] Speaker C: Is not safe for work, not safe for minors, not safe at all. Later, it gets revealed in these chat. [00:23:11] Speaker B: Rooms from american muckrakers pack that, uh, Mark Robinson and the sister in law. [00:23:20] Speaker C: Let'S just say, let's just say that. [00:23:24] Speaker B: They both had an affinity for golden showers. [00:23:29] Speaker C: Now, not for pulse of the nation to kink shame politicians, but this is. [00:23:40] Speaker B: Politics in the age of the Internet, alright? [00:23:45] Speaker C: If you want to be in politics. [00:23:47] Speaker B: You have to watch what you say when you're young because if you don't and if you don't delete anything and don't try to scrub as much as. [00:23:56] Speaker C: You can, what you say on the. [00:23:58] Speaker B: Internet is gonna be forever. [00:24:00] Speaker C: Someone's gonna find out. Someone is gonna find out and essentially. [00:24:09] Speaker B: Try to ruin your political career. Because this guy's lieutenant governor of North Carolina, by the way. Now we know, right, Roy Cooper didn't want to be Harris's vice presidential nominee. [00:24:22] Speaker C: But, uh, this guy was already in. [00:24:24] Speaker B: The dumps against Shaw Stein. It was down big in the polls. It was a lean democratic to likely democratic race. But you want to know, 11th of all, 11th of all Josh Stein's people never leaked this out. This was a hit job by Republicans, by the North Carolina GOP, and by the Trump campaign because, uh, they've all. [00:24:48] Speaker C: Of a sudden realized, oh, crap, Mark Robinson might drag us down so much that we might actually lose North Carolina. [00:24:56] Speaker B: So they have essentially decided to unload. [00:25:00] Speaker C: The clip and not just that, launch tactical nukes on Mark Robinson's gubernatorial campaign. [00:25:09] Speaker B: In an attempt to get him to drop out and replace him with, like, Mark Warren or something. It's a last ish, desperate effort. They have the North Carolina supreme Court. They delayed, you know, they delayed, you know, mail voting for a couple weeks just to have RFK's name getting taken off the ballot, which, you know, was decried by North Carolina Democrats as election interference in favor of Donald Trump. So, you know, there's a fear from Democrats that this was all an effort to get Robinson's name off the ballot, try to delay voting again. Unfortunately, the one thing that a lot of fearful Democrats weren't counting on is. [00:25:42] Speaker C: The fact that this leaked the day. [00:25:44] Speaker B: Before the federal deadline to get military and overseas ballots out. And Mark Robinson did not drop out, stayed in the race. [00:25:53] Speaker C: Now it means he's in for the long haul. Now he's not just going to be. [00:25:57] Speaker B: A name on the ballot because you wouldn't be able to get his name off the ballot anyways. [00:26:01] Speaker C: Now he's an actual nominee. He's the republican nominee for governor. And people like Tom Tillis have, I. [00:26:09] Speaker B: Think, trying to forget about them. Like Virginia Fox is trying to forget about them. But, and all these North Carolina republican politicians have deleted pictures of them with Mark Robinson because this guy is a freak. This guy is not just put aside him having verbally anti semitic or homophobic or racist transphobic views. [00:26:34] Speaker C: The guy is a. And in an era, in a summer. [00:26:40] Speaker B: Because when this episode comes out, summer will be over. Time for fall. This summer has seen the exposing of so many freaks, whether that be Drake. [00:26:53] Speaker C: Whether that be Diddy, or the tens. [00:26:55] Speaker B: Or hundreds of other things, doctor, disrespect other people that have done horrible, horrible, you know, urban accused at least of having done horrible, horrible, you know, sexual acts or crimes. And I did not expect, to be completely honest, I did not expect Mark Robinson to be the name to cap us off. That wasn't even the only sex related scandal to come out of Thursday. And I will just talk about Robinson for a few minutes while I try to upload. The next thing I'm going to talk about, which is just really polling averages and models from 538 is North Carolina. Let's talk about North Carolina for a second, because this is a toss up state. It's a swing state. It's the one state the Democrats have identified as they're trying to expand the map, the one expansion opportunity. I don't get why they don't add Texas to the list, but that's another topic for another day. North Carolina only went for Trump like 1.3% in 2020, but it was already going to be a toss up anyways. Biden's campaign knew this and Harris campaign knows this. They spent early, they spent often in North Carolina. And as I said last week, Donald Trump's campaign strategy is just to win Pennsylvania, Georgia, flip them back and hope to God you still hold North Carolina. Trump's campaign recognized it's got to be. [00:28:23] Speaker C: Very hard to do that with a. [00:28:24] Speaker B: Guy like Mark Robinson being the gubernatorial nominee, being the second name on the ballot, by the way, because there are no Senate races this year. North Carolina, they're our state Senate, but not us Senate. So Trump's campaign did catch really wind of this earlier in the week, and Donald Trump explicitly told Marco, and hey, look, you're not allowed on the campaign trail with me. You cannot be in the same room as me. You cannot appear on the same stage as me because your candidacy is a detriment to mine. They recognize that Mark Robinson is putting. [00:29:02] Speaker C: North Carolina at risk. And the problem is, Mark Robinson isn't. [00:29:06] Speaker B: The reason why North Carolina is at risk for the Trump campaign. The reason why North Carolina's at risk for the Trump campaign is, quite frankly, because North Carolina is a very close, competitive state to begin with. You have rural areas, depopulating, black rural areas swinging to the right. Western North Carolina and metro line on the research triangle, Raleigh, Charlotte, Asheville, all swinging to the left. And Wilmington is also swinging left, too, as well as Boone. So you have all these disparate in differing trends, and that combines to make North Carolina a very close state. You know, it voted for Obama in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016. Democrats and Republicans each have high floors. Republicans have very dense rural areas which give them a ton of vote, particularly in the Piedmont region. And in Charlotte, exurbs, although in Charlotte, exurbs, Charlotte suburbs and exurbs have been getting less red. And that's a pretty huge problem for the Republicans in the long run, particularly in Cabarrus county. That's the home county of the Earnhardt's, back when Kannapolis was a really rural area, and now it really isn't. That's pretty suburban, if you ask me. So. [00:30:18] Speaker C: There is the issue, and North. [00:30:22] Speaker B: Carolina is still very, very close. And I'm pretty sure 538 has, you know, has Kamala Harris in the edge in their model. So let's look this up in real time. I say real time. This is real time when I'm recording, let's be completely honest. So we get the 530, the national bowling average. So right now, 538 has Kamala Harris up about 2.9%. The national popular vote, 48.4% for Harris, 45.5% for Donald Trump. Alright, so then we'll take a look at Pennsylvania. This is, many people believe this is the critical swing state. More important than any other swing state anywhere in the nation and commonwealth. Harris has opened a 1.4 percentage point lead in the state, 48.2% to 46.8%. This is taking an average of polls from 538. A lot of people a lot smarter than me work on this and they do really good work. So the polls to a note, there's been quite a few ties. Washington Post says just a one, just in a one v one, you know, Harrison Trump tied at 48%. Unlikely voters, Marist College, 49 49. But a few of the. Yeah, I. Those are some of the outliers. The outliers. Going the other way is Quinnipiac, who also had a poll this week. Kamala Harris up by five points, 51% to 46%. In New York Times, Sienna College also had polls come out this week. Kamala Harris, 50%, Trump, 46%. Insider advantage. I will say, I'm only putting this in here to show uphold the republican lead. Trump by 250% to 48% over Harris. But I'm gonna tell you, I don't trust insider advantage. They're one of the main pollsters behind the whole, you know, Republican, you know, push polls in 2022 that did absolutely terribly. [00:32:24] Speaker C: They did absolutely terribly. [00:32:26] Speaker B: And this sort of flood the zone strategy that a lot of republican pollsters like to use to jet up the possibility of Republicans are doing a lot better and racing than people would initially want to think. But yeah, I will say that, you know, that I don't think has exactly gone to plan for republicans. [00:32:47] Speaker C: Mostly. [00:32:48] Speaker B: Mostly. So we're going to look up some other states. We're going to look up Georgia. And what Georgia has is one of the few states where Trump has a lead in the national bowling average about 0.48% to 47%. This is because of the University of Georgia School of Public International affairs poll that came out. This is usually one of the better polling states for Trump, it's this with Trump by three in a six person field, 47% to 44%. You also have morning consult coming out with a Trump by 149 to 48. Emerson Trump 50 Harris 48 Tipp insights tip insights has Harris doing a lot better. Tied in the one v one amongst likely voters, 48% to 48%. Same thing in a four person field. Jill Stein and Cornel west amongst registered voters. She is up three in the one v one and two in the four person race there. So Georgia, again, these are all very close states. Any an error of like a point or two points in either direction is going to lead to the other candidate winning. So these are all very close to very toss up races. North Carolina Trump 0.1 percentage points in terms of the polling average here, 47.5 to 47.4. You can't get any closer than that. And that was only because the recent victory Insights poll, which had Trump up by 449% to 45%. Earlier you had polls from Emerson College, harris by Harris by 150% to 49%. Morning console had her up by 249% to 47%, which that pushed her up. You also had a signal poll. One of the republican polls was having Trump up by 146% to 45% in a six in a six way race there. So very close in North Carolina. Let's go over to a state like Michigan. There's been a few good polls for Kamala Harris coming out of there, so let's go ahead and look this up. Kamala Harris up about 2.7% 48.6% 245.8%. This is because of a morning consult poll that has Kamala's up by 852% to 44%. Marist College poll that had her atlive five with likely voters, 52% to 47%. Same thing with Quinnipiac University, 51% to 46%. And just a spate of good polls for Kamala Harris has her opening a decent advantage there in the state of Michigan, a state that I think the Democrats absolutely have to have if they want to win the presidency. A state like Wisconsin, which really has been, even with Biden, one of the better polling states for democrats in recent years, often kind of overstates, I think, the democratic advantage here. Donald Trump did get some decent polls out of here. Just the Emerson College one, where he's up by 150% to 49%. But still other decent to good polls for Kamala Harris for Britsy Olean associates impact research had Kamala Harris up 149 to 48.49% to 48% in the one v one, up by 348% to 45% in the seven person race because Robert F. Kennedy's name is still on the ballot. In Wisconsin, Quinnipiac had Kamala Harris up by one with likely voters 49 48. I've already read that three. Mayor's college had her up by 150% to 49%, with likely voters up through registered voters. Morning consult had her up by six with likely voters 50% to 44%. So decent news for comm layers there. But again, slight pulling errors in the other direction would lead to a very, very bad night for Democrats. Let's look at a state like Nevada. Notoriously difficult to pull, notoriously undersells Democrats usually. Kamala Harris is actually up by seven tenths of a percent, 47.4%, 46.6%. Bunch of that surrounding and whatnot. And this is due largely to a morning consult poll that had Kamala Harris up by four, in Nevada, 51% to 47%. Other recent polls include an Emerson College poll that had the race tied 49% to 49%. And finally, a state like Arizona. Polls, I think, are really underselling Democrats here, where Trump has always had a consistent polling advantage, and I'm not exactly sure why, jumps up a half a percent, 47.5 to a 47%. And this tightening is because of recent polls that show the race very, very tight. Lots of one to two point leads here. Recently, Dado Orbital had a tied race, 46 a pop. Morning Consult had Kamala Harris up by 148% to 47%. Emerson College had Trump up a point, 50% to 49%. So those are the polling averages and all the swing states there coming your way, let's look up the 538 model because we have time. So let's go ahead and let's do it. Who saved win at 2024 presidential election? Right now, they think that more likely than not, it'll be Kamala Harris, although they still think it is very, very, very close, 61% to 39% in favor of Kamala Harris. As we get to the different states, let's start out in the rust belt. Let's start out in Wisconsin. They have Kamala Harris at a 61% chance to win. Michigan, they have Kamala Harris a 64% chance to win, and Trump at 36. In Michigan, 39%. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, 58% chance. Harris, 42% chance for Donald Trump. Let's go over the Sunbelt in North Carolina, 50 50, but give the very slight edge to Kamala Harris. I think this is like, God, I don't even know, but this is extremely, incredibly close there. They're giving just the slight odds to Kamala Harris 51 to 50 they have here. And the same thing in Georgia as well. [00:39:00] Speaker C: Wow. [00:39:01] Speaker B: Let's go over to Arizona. They have Kamala Harris 51% to 49% chance for Kamala Harris to win there. Nevada, 57% chance for Kamala Harris to win there. Let's look at some of the other reach states similar, like likely republican, likely democratic states. Let's start off with the likely democratic states. In a state like Minnesota, Kamala Harris 82% chance to win there. Virginia, Kamala Harris 88% chance to win there. In a state like New Hampshire, Kamala Harris 83% chance to win in Maine, Kamala Harris 89% chance. Some of the likely to lean and also New Mexico, Kamala Harris has 89% chances in that state as well. Some of the lean to likely republican states. There are two states which the 538 model puts at lean republican Florida. Trump, only a 66% 7% chance to win there. I'm not sure how much I actually believe that those odds are commonly hears, but again, these are similar odds to what Donald Trump had nationwide in the 538 model in 2016. So definitely do with that as you wish. Another lean r state. Texas. Trump, 74% chance to win there as well. And Texas might honestly be the key to whoever wins the Senate. So advantage republicans there, and some of the likely republican states go to. Alaska. Trump, only an 88% chance to win in Alaska, a state like, you know, Ohio. Trump an 84% chance to win there. Maine's second congressional district, a 76% chance to win, almost knocking it into the leading republican category in Iowa, Trump, an 84% chance to win the state of Iowa, just off the 538 model. So very close election right now, one that a lot of people think is going to be as close or even closer than 2020. But it is one where Kamala Harris does seem to have the slight but distinctive advantage. And considering fundraising numbers, considering the ground game that Kamala Harris has compared to what Donald Trump doesn't have and the Republicans have, they've outsourced it all at turning Point USA. I discussed that last week. There is ample evidence to believe with this, the Washington primary, with the special election results, that Democrats might actually be being underselled or undersold in this election, which would turn a close election into a blowout pretty quickly. Just not just the national popular vote, but how much you're winning these swing states by, because it's a lot different winning a state by half a point versus winning it by one point. It's a lot different winning a state by one point versus winning it by two points, two to three, three to four, so on and so forth. Every percentage point the Democrats gain in the swing states or states would turn a close election into a blowout. And every percentage point in the republican Republicans would gain could turn a very close election into an extremely tight election decided by only like, tens of thousands of votes in a few states combined. So we'll keep you up to date on those polling averages. We'll keep you up to date on the models. But they suggest every week, because this is going to be close, early voting has already started in some states. We're seeing votes being tracked and counted and not really county yet, but tracked and received in Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania and in Florida. So people are starting to turn in their mail ballots there. North Carolina will be joining shortly. So that is going to be. Oh, my cheese. Oh, my God. We just got more breaking news on scandals as I'm sitting here right now. [00:42:53] Speaker C: Are you kidding me? I have to go through like, three other scandals that broke today. I have to go, like, three other ones. So I guess let's just do breaking news alert right now. [00:43:07] Speaker B: Apparently, according to, again, this is not safe for work. [00:43:11] Speaker C: Disclaimer not safe for work. [00:43:13] Speaker B: This involves representative Matt Gaetze, and if I'm talking about Matt, Republican Florida. If I'm talking about Matt Gaetz and. [00:43:20] Speaker C: Talking about not safe for work, people. [00:43:22] Speaker B: Who are occluded will know immediately what I'm talking about. Apparently, according to legal documents filed to a Florida federal court shortly before midnight on Thursday, Matt Gaetz apparently. Oh, my God. I can't, I can't even say this without me worrying I'm gonna get kicked off the air. Oh, my goodness gracious. So let's just pull up the full story. This is absolutely ridiculous. Apparently, Matt Gaetz was placed at a party at the center of the, of the trafficking scandal. Let's say it's the first public find that cites sworn testimony alleging that Matt Gates attended a long rumored party with a teenage girl. I think this is the, this is the one with, I think Matt Gates almost paid to have, Matt Gates is accused of paying to have relations with him. And apparently Matt Gates, his own ex girlfriend, apparently provided testimony that rebuts Matt Gates's, that rebuts the host of the party's claims that Gates was not there. So. Yikes. Yikes. This is not great. Matt Gates apparently attending a party with an, what they. [00:45:00] Speaker C: 17 year old, 17 year old girl. [00:45:04] Speaker B: Which is the center of a sex trafficking scandal, and he attends a drug fueled party. You can guess what the party had. Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. It's just another day, another scandal breaks and I just. Man, Jesus Christ. I have three more scandals to get through. I have three more scandals to get through. The first one starts with Eric Hovdy in Wisconsin, the GOP Senate candidate. They are running against democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin. So this regards him and apparently his banks dealing with the bank linked to drug cartels. So this is from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel revealing that Banco Azteca, a bank that is reportedly tied to the mexican drug cartels, flew $26 million of cash to Eric Covni's bank in California. And that Banco, a stack of, was cut off by several other us banks over risk and compliance concerns after reporting LinkedIn to cartel activity. An executive of Banco Azteca was recently implicated in a federal indictment detailing his attempts to bribe a member of Congress to get us banks to once again do business with this bank. Despite this, Eric Hovdes bank flew this $26 million of cash over to his bank in Irvine, California. As for of a deal with Monk Westeca last December, this apparently, apparently hubby is not disclosing which foreign banks and governments his bank has done millions of dollars of business with. [00:46:52] Speaker C: Ho, Lord. [00:46:53] Speaker B: I mean, Eric Hovdy, I think, was, I think, is a, not a favorite. I think he's favored to lose and lose quite handily to Tammy Baldwin. This isn't going to help particularly, like, particularly if he's going to try to run on an anti immigrant, anti migration message. Tammy Baldwin's just going to have, oh, Eric Hovdu is doing dealings with the cartel members or something. That's going to be the ads that are going to be in Wisconsin throughout the entirety of October. So congratulations, Eric. Like, and that wasn't even, like, the fifth most shocking thing to come out of just Thursday. Thursday, people. [00:47:36] Speaker C: Like, literally Wednesday was my 21st birthday. Like, and you're supposed to get drunk. [00:47:42] Speaker B: On your 21st birthday. And I was planning to do it. [00:47:46] Speaker C: And like, like, this what you're supposed to do. [00:47:49] Speaker B: You're not a 21 year old. And then here I am watching these special elections, watching these polls come in the day after. [00:47:56] Speaker C: On 21st, the first day, I'm fully 21 years old. Like, five massive scandals break all at once. Pretty much like, what? Like, oh, what a nightcap. Oh, my God, everything is breaking at once. This is the election cycle, everybody. [00:48:18] Speaker B: This is our election cycle. [00:48:21] Speaker C: Everything is going to be breaking at once. [00:48:24] Speaker B: And. [00:48:27] Speaker C: Yeah, I need y'all to know. [00:48:30] Speaker B: It'S only gonna get crazier from here. It's only going to get crazier from here. [00:48:40] Speaker C: Speaking of which, in the us house today, yes, more scandals. [00:48:50] Speaker B: Although this one's more funny than anything else. It's not really saying a politician was doing anything wrong or anything. This is just kind of funny. Someone got caught in 4K, essentially, is what going on. So this was, so this involves the guy named Michael Eric Dyson, who was in a house hearing for whatever reason. So they were clashing because Nancy Mace mispronounced Kamala Harris's name intentionally or unintentionally. [00:49:22] Speaker C: I'm not going to speculate. [00:49:25] Speaker B: And that Michael Dyson accused Mace of representing, quote, a legacy of white disregard for black Americans. Quote, when you disrespect commonly. As for saying you will call her whatever you want, I know you don't intend it to be that way, but that's the history and legacy of white regard for the humanity of black people. When Mase refused to correct the pronunciation, Dyson added in a house oversight hearing on Thursday, you're a white woman disrespecting a black woman. [00:49:54] Speaker C: Nancy Mace ends up responding, ayo, ayo. [00:49:58] Speaker B: Mike, you do remember, because he's a professor from Vanderbilt. [00:50:04] Speaker C: And. [00:50:06] Speaker B: Oh, Lord. [00:50:08] Speaker C: Michael Dyson apparently got caught being horny. [00:50:11] Speaker B: On main to Nancy Mace, a woman he was berating for mispronouncing Kamala Harris's name. And Nancy Mace brought receipts. She brought the text, o Lord. [00:50:28] Speaker C: O. [00:50:29] Speaker B: Lord, o lord, o lord, o lorde. Apparently he was, he sent her basically horny DM's. Yeah. So apparently some of the private messages included Dyson saying, quote, don't tell anybody we look good together and sending her a kissing emoji. And I. Then the guy says, I'm gorgeous in all these photos. Brother, brother. Oh, my God. [00:51:06] Speaker C: Like, again, this is not going to. [00:51:09] Speaker B: Be the only lesson to not. [00:51:13] Speaker C: Please, please. [00:51:16] Speaker B: Horniness gets people nowhere in politics. Well, it gets people a lot of places in politics, but it's not going to get you anywhere in this context. Right? [00:51:25] Speaker C: Like, be smart. Be smart. Like, I just personally do not understand. [00:51:34] Speaker B: Right? [00:51:34] Speaker C: Just personally, I don't understand why you were going to say Nancy Mace. Like, I do not like, personally, I do not like her politics. But Nancy Mace don't know you, bro. She don't know you. She don't. She's like, wha. What are you doing, bro? What are you doing? You're a professor at Vanderbilt or maybe war when this episode gets released. Because I'm not sure if Vanderbilt's gonna keep you employed after this. [00:52:11] Speaker B: Just out of embarrassment, I suspend you. I don't know, like, they're gonna fire you. [00:52:15] Speaker C: But dude, you, you're bringing shame upon Vanderbilt University, one of the most esteemed universities in the nation, by. By being directly horny to a congresswoman. What are you doing? What are you doing? In the fact that this is now the only, the second most notable instance of a republican member of the US House of Representatives being involved in some sort of sex related incident that breaks today? This is early Friday morning when I'm recording this because I just got off. [00:52:59] Speaker B: My shift at WVUAFM. Gives me time to completely recap the day's events. And then, then Nancy Mace is going to be the only instance in Congress. [00:53:10] Speaker C: That I talk about. [00:53:11] Speaker B: But nope, Matt Gates has to break. Can you tell I'm going a little bit insane? I mean, what with Mark Robinson and Eric Covd and now Matt Gaethje Sprog and Nancy Mace. And another thing I'm going to be talking about. Yes. There is another scandal that I'm going to cap off today with. Yeah. My goodness. Like, imma be completely honest. Like, this story in the next story. [00:53:40] Speaker C: Is just an example. [00:53:43] Speaker B: Please, please, please. I know I'm sounding like Sabrina Carpenter. [00:53:46] Speaker C: A little bit, but for the love of God, keep it in your pants. Like, this shouldn't be a hard concept. Have to understand. But apparently people don't understand it. And I don't care what political affiliation you are. Like, just, no, stop being a creep, please. [00:54:17] Speaker B: And I hate that we have to end off on the next story that I'm about to say. [00:54:25] Speaker C: This also applies to journalists as well. All right, look, I understand, you know. [00:54:34] Speaker B: Drives are drives and whatnot. But if you are one of the more famous journalists in America, all right, and you are reporting on the 2024. [00:54:45] Speaker C: Presidential election, it might behoove you not to be sexting one of the presidential candidates in the 2024 general election, Olivia. [00:55:00] Speaker B: Nutsee, was suspended on Thursday from New York magazine because she revealed to them that she was having a tryst. [00:55:12] Speaker C: With RFK junior. She is 31 years old. He is 70. At what point do you classify that his elder abuse, considering RFK admitted he. [00:55:26] Speaker B: Has brainworms in his head? [00:55:29] Speaker C: Like, age gap aside, I don't exactly think that behavior is ethical. You were born, you went on a hiking trip with him last November. What was that hiking trip actually about? And your husband, Ryan Lizza, has to email millions of people to tell the whole world about this. That is your partner. That is your husband. This is on the same day that RFK junior is being investigated for having, like, a dead whale skull with them because that violates laws. And RFK Jr. Is getting investigated for politics, people. This is politics. This is the drama of it all. My voice is getting raspy as I described you. All of these salacious stories, this just pow, pow, pow of news stories breaking. [00:56:39] Speaker B: Every like 2 hours. [00:56:42] Speaker C: This is politics, people. I want to bring this lesson to y'all because if you're interested to get. [00:56:48] Speaker B: Interested in politics, if you want to cover this like I do, if you're going to obsess with this like I. [00:56:52] Speaker C: Do, be prepared for days like this. [00:56:56] Speaker B: Days like Thursday to come along. [00:57:01] Speaker C: And it's just going to leave your brain completely fried. [00:57:05] Speaker B: It's going to leave your brain like, what do we do? [00:57:10] Speaker C: It's election season, baby. [00:57:13] Speaker B: News stories break every hour. The closer we get to election day, news stories start breaking constantly. Like, if you're getting a news media, if you're a getting into journalism, things. [00:57:25] Speaker C: Like this, days like this weapon, there. [00:57:28] Speaker B: Will be days where nothing happens. And there will be days when everything happens. And not for me to bring up Lenin, but there are, you know, decades where nothing happens. There are weeks where decades happen. This is just a more extreme version of that quote, apparently what happened on. [00:57:43] Speaker C: Thursday the 19th, I mean, my idea. [00:57:49] Speaker B: For pulse of the nation, we're just going to bring you the hottest weekly political news stories. It wasn't my plan, I will be completely honest, it was not my plan for most of these stories to happen on Thursday. I planned for this to be more of a update on what the US House, US Senate was going to be like, polling averages. It was going to be more about the presidential election than anything else. [00:58:11] Speaker C: But Thursday happened. [00:58:14] Speaker B: And, uh, when all these news stories have to break, you have to fit them in here somewhere. [00:58:19] Speaker C: Especially when a news story breaks during the recording of a podcast of the. [00:58:24] Speaker B: Very thing that I am talking to you about and talking to you through. Sometimes it happens like that. I've had this happen to me before. [00:58:38] Speaker C: But good, good lord, it's just like. [00:58:41] Speaker B: The New Orleans Saints offense just drive after drive after drive, touchdown after touchdown. [00:58:48] Speaker C: Story after story, happening constantly. [00:58:53] Speaker B: By the way. [00:58:54] Speaker C: Who that? [00:58:56] Speaker B: But oh my lord, it exhausts you quickly if you're not careful. [00:59:03] Speaker C: And I'll tell you that right now. [00:59:07] Speaker B: The reason why I'm titling this episode a day of scandal is because. [00:59:15] Speaker C: Thursday. [00:59:17] Speaker B: Just was that day. And it's a lesson. The Internet is always forever and to. [00:59:26] Speaker C: Never, ever, ever be horny on Maine. [00:59:31] Speaker B: And to never let those kind of drives get in the way of ethics at your job. Whether you're a professor at Vanderbilt or whether you're one of the most famous journalists in America, one of the more famous political journalists anywhere in the country. Yeah. So this week was kind of crazy. Further weeks will probably be crazier because that just how politics works. But I want to thank y'all for helping me guide you through it all, even as I'm losing sanity on the other side myself. Thank you for listening to me ramble about politics for an hour. I will be back next week. And we have taken the pulse of the nation. [01:00:20] Speaker A: Any opinions pressed in this program are those of the host and do not represent the thoughts or opinions of 90.7 WVUA or the University of Alabama. Wvuafm, tuscaloosa.