Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] WVUA FM, Tuscaloosa. Any opinions expressed in this program are those of the host and do not represent the thoughts or opinions of 90.7 WVUA or the University of Alabama.
[00:00:20] Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Pulse of the nation. This is season three, episode five. I'm your host, Brayden Vick, here from WVUA FM. And the primaries are over. The presidential primaries ended last Tuesday with Joe Biden winning the Georgia primaries for the Democrats, Donald Trump winning Washington Republicans. What an anticlimactic primary cycle. We're just going to get things right. Started with a primary cycle that if you listen to merely the mainstream media, what they were telling you is like, oh, well, the Donald Trump might be favorite, but he might actually have a competitive race. Oh, Ron DeSantis, look at him up in the polls immediately after the Republicans flopped in the midterms. And then Ron DeSantis, as I've mocked earlier, way earlier, in the bolts of the nation series, for longtime viewers of the podcast, my God, I've gone into Ron DeSantis. I have dug into him so many times recently, and that has not been more evident than the fact that the Florida primaries were this week and Ron DeSantis only got around 4% statewide in the state of Florida, trailing far behind Nikki Haley. Who is the other media doing? Oh, look, here is a moderate sounding Republican who is whooping Joe Biden in the polls. Do you see that Wisconsin poll that came out about a month ago with Nikki Haley winning about 14 points, or whatever it was on Joe Biden? Never mind the fact that Wisconsin tends to have wonky polls. See the ABC News Washington Post id 16 poll they had in 2020. But let's disregard that because Nikki Haley is beating Joe Biden, cleaning his clock out in all these swing states, and the media is hyping this up. Oh, this could be competitive. You have Americans for prosperity and Koch brothers all in this, and then Donald Trump just cleans up, wins over 70%, basically every state, minus New Hampshire, or maybe Nikki Haley's home state of South Carolina. But even still, those are kind of lopsided victories, especially South Carolina. So the primaries are over. A primary cycle that has been over for about a year, ever since Joe Biden announced that he was, in fact, going to run for reelection, is now officially over. The delegates have been reached. We are now in the general election cycle, one of the longest, if not maybe the longest general election in modern american politics. So, yes, here's a new election, same as the old election. And it's not just the candidates themselves. Obviously, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both now unpopular, you know, unpopular executives. I mean, Joe Biden has, ever since the Afghanistan withdrawal, had pretty terrible approval ratings, and that has only seemed to get, you know, ever so worse with time. Usually when you have a president who's, like, 38, 39% approvals in a lot of these polling averages, usually not a good sign for that president to go ahead and win reelection. It wouldn't be for Joe Biden if he was running against any other republican candidate except for Donald Trump.
[00:03:34] And I don't think I need to go into detail about his approval ratings. They're actually slightly better than Joe Biden's. I think that's subordinate to the fact that a lot of people maybe forgot that he was president. Like, I'm not even joking. Like, a lot of Americans, I think, have sort of pushed Donald Trump's presidency to the wayside. It was like, oh, push him out of your minds. You know, try to forget about him. But now he's back, and Republicans love him. As far as the republican primary base goes, at the very least, they love them. And when Donald Trump announced that he was going to try and run to get the presidency back, in my mind, it wasn't any doubt that he would win very easily. Like, again, I bang on about these mainstream media narratives of half of the past few, uh, half of the past few podcasts. But I think it does bear repeating that sometimes. A lot of times, to be honest, mainstream media, you know, their first job is to make a profit. And what makes profits? Horse races. So they made a horse race out of a primary that wasn't even really a primary. Like, it was essentially Donald. Like, it wasn't really controlled opposition. But from the way the republican primary base acts, it almost looks like controlled opposition. Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and all these other bunch of random nobodies.
[00:04:53] Yes, I am including Chris Christie in that. Thanks for asking. But now that that whole thing is now over, there are still a few, like, primary nominating contests, but those only matter for election geeks like myself. And I'll tell you, if I see any trends from any of those primaries that don't match up with what we've seen in the rest of these primaries. With what we've seen in the rest of these primaries, though, it has been a sort of national trend. Where are these candidates doing the best? Where Joe Biden is doing the worst, Donald Trump seems to be doing the best. Where Donald Trump seems to be doing his weakest numbers. Joe Biden's putting up some of the strongest numbers. So let's actually go into the relative electoral strengths and weaknesses of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump as far as demographics are concerned. So we'll start off with Joe Biden. We'll start off with his weaknesses, of which there are quite a few. We'll start off with leftists. Of course, you heard about all these pro palestine, uncommitted campaigns. And you saw that in a state like Michigan or a state like Hawaii, even though Hawaii only had like, what, 3000 votes total in that caucus or something like very low turn up and uncommitted got a very high vote here in the state of Hawaii. Then you have a few of these other states, like Washington has an uncommitted campaign. Georgia has, I think, like a leave about blank campaign. Or, you know, a few of these other states have, you know, have uncommitted campaigns that perform well. Ish Minnesota, it performed really well, especially in Minneapolis and St. Paul. So you have that going for you. You have a bunch of, you know, younger, more progressive voters whom or Luke war on Biden to begin with. But, you know, a lot of them will tolerate them because, you know, don't you know, he is the challenger. He is not exactly a fresh phrase, considering he was the oldest ever elected president. But compared to Donald Trump, it's like, okay, I'll vote for Joe Biden because, you know, anything to get Trump out of office. But then you see what's happening in Israel and Palestine. A lot of them are absolutely disgusted by America's support for the military actions of the state of Israel and the israeli defense forces. So they go to these democratic primaries. A lot of them do. And they vote uncommitted. It's a protest vote. And Biden's doing his weakest numbers amongst them. He's also doing his weakest numbers in that same vein amongst muslim voters. Now, I will stress that while a lot of these muslim voters are voting over the Palestine issue in regards to what the protest votes are, I will caution that there may be a hint of social conservatism in that, especially in Michigan. You go over to Dearborn, you go over to East Dearborn in particular, like you're going to see in 2024. You're going to see Joe Biden make massive losses. Trump make massive gains with East Dearborn voters. Now, the losses for Joe Biden, a lot of them will be attributed to Palestine, obviously.
[00:08:01] But the gains that Donald Trump is making isn't due to Palestine for most of these, it's the social conservatism if you remember, in 2022, there was a lot of this drummed up culture war stuff regarding flying pride flags, book bands and all this stuff. And it hit Dearborn. And the Republicans in the state were trying to make alliances of socially conservative muslim voters over the issue. It's like, hey, like, we will reach out to you. We'll say the things you want to hear on a certain issue, and you could turn on to vote for us then. Now, instead of winning east, you're born 80 to 20 Democrats in Michigan. We're winning it like 65, 35, or 60 to 40, even as Democrats winning Michigan by near double digits in 2022.
[00:08:54] Like, I will stress that a lot of this, you know, a lot of this, you know, muslim protest vote, quite frankly, a lot of the losses Biden's gonna be facing, you know, it's not just gonna be due to Palestine. It's going to be due to social conservatism. Speaking of social conservatives, non white social conservatives, that Joe Biden has lost groundwith and Donald Trump has gained ground with latino voters, that has been one of the major, you know, forms of, you know, Biden weakness, let's say, in regards to these primaries. And this is happening all across the nation. This isn't just a Texas thing or a Florida thing. It's popped up even in states like, you know, state like Ohio. You know, I was looking at Lorain County, Ohio, a few days ago. You know, it's a county. It's west of Cleveland. It's a swing county. You know, Donald Trump, I think, I think, either won it narrowly in 2016 or Clinton won it narrowly in 2016. I think Clinton won it narrowly, then Trump won it in 2020, I'm not sure. But Lorraine county was within a point in 2016, and then Donald Trump swung it to the right by two points in 2020. And that's owing to Donald Trump's gains in the city of Lorraine, which is in sort of northern Lorraine county along the Lake coast, along the Lake shore. And that city of Lorraine has a high population of latino voters. Latino voters shifted right all across the nation from Lawrence, Massachusetts, all the way down to Los Angeles, California. So not exactly too surprising there to see some of the protest votes going against Biden there in the democratic primary.
[00:10:41] Those areas also where you saw Donald Trump's greatest strengths or some of Donald Trump's greatest strengths in Ohio specificity, some of Bernie Moreno's greatest strengths, because in Ohio, they also had, you know, all these other primaries that were happening. And Bernie Moreno, the Trump backed candidate, the car salesman, he won and he didn't just win Ohio against the moderate, more moderate state senator Matt Dolan and a conservative secretary of state by the name of Frank Larose. Bernie Moreno got a majority of the vote, over 50%, and he won every single county in Ohio, all 88 counties. Bernie Marino swept a huge win for the MAGA movement over the republican old guard in the state of Ohio. But back to what this might mean for a general election.
[00:11:34] It means that even in the area like Lorraine County, a Swain county, where a lot of the democratic vote isn't just based off the white voters, it's based off of nonwhite voters of color, and especially amongst latino voters, Biden has been losing ground with them. And you absolutely see that in Lorraine county. I'll come back to it later. I will caution, though, that some of these latino protest voters are Republicans, just voting for Democrats and the local primaries, because the local races are the ones for some of them that might matter the most. Nowhere is this more true than in south Texas, because you all these terrible numbers for Joe Biden in south Texas, like in Zapata county, and, you know, even here, like web, where Laredo is, McAllen, some of the more rural counties north of McAllen and Hidalgo county, especially, a lot of these, you know, protest votes weren't exactly protest votes, you know, by Democrats against Joe Biden. These are Trump voters. A lot of them were Trump voters in 2020, especially in South Texas, where Donald Trump swung to Hannah. So the right bike or gantry went out. And that was one of the big electoral surprises of 2020.
[00:12:50] Like, you didn't see a lot of votes in republican primaries. Like, you had democratic primary vote share, far out gain, Joe Biden's vote share, vote margins in a lot of these South Texas counties.
[00:13:07] So I do have to caution that. And also, you know, this situation is far more muted amongst Latinos in urban areas, say, like a corpus Christi or even a Houston or San Antonio, rather than in an area, like, you know, Rio Grande City in Stark County, Texas.
[00:13:26] And I think some of these nuances do have to be studied because the difference between a five to ten point swing, right, and then, like a 20 to 40 point swing, right, absolutely massive. And something that cannot be discounted. Like, those are the things that could end up winning and losing elections for certain candidates. And the more nuances we bring about urban versus rural, suburban versus ex urban, the better as far as the black voters go, because you see in the polling crosstabs all Donald Trump's winning 2020, 5%, 30% of the black vote in some of these polling cross tabs. And the mainstream media is making a bunch of stories about this, oh, how Trump is gaining massively with the black vote, or how Joe Biden is losing young voters by five to ten points or whatever. Like, I'm gonna tell you right now, those polling crosstabs that you see, most of them just are flat out false.
[00:14:22] Like, it's not that the top lines are, you know, wrong or anything like that, is that the crosstabs themselves, you know, there's too small sample sizes to, you know, be very reliable because you often see a poll where, oh, Donald Trump's getting 30% of the black vote, another poll in 10% of black vote, and you don't know which one is right. And you can't really make narratives out of that from one massive swing, from one poll to the next. And, you know, all this sort of garbage that, you know, gets put out for clicks, the polls themselves aren't going to put out for clicks. The articles are just to go ahead and make sure. But when I looked at these actual, the precinct data for a lot of these counties, I focused on Texas, you know, Florida and Ohio for this one. What I found was that for a black voter to swing rightward, to swing more conservative, probably have to be a little bit on the younger side. Don't, you know, really remember the Civil Rights act or the protests movement surrounding that? You don't have the same loyalty towards the Democratic Party that parents or grandparents might. And they also key here is, especially in an area like Harris county, proximity to latino voters is key, because around northern Houston, the northern Houston black population, Donald Trump did very well.
[00:15:49] But in south Houston, where there is more of a black population, but importantly less a latino population, the non Trump candidates, particularly Nikki Haley, tended to do better than the statewide average in Texas. And that was something that really interested me when it first popped up. Now, Donald Trump overall, you know, the precincts where he did best in Harris county were bit blacker on average, and the precincts were non Trump candidates did better than the statewide average. So I'm not discounting any black rightward swings. Like, I do think there will be a small swing to the right from black voters again. But the problem is it's getting trumpeted up as this much larger, like, red tsunami when it's only going to be a red trickle. And the, it's sort of going to be pronounced in areas with already high latino populations who are going to be driving a majority of that swing. Right.
[00:16:50] So it's something that, yes, Joe Biden should address. And he is addressing. He's tried to, you know, his campaign is trying to reach out to us, several, several non white voter groups, reaching out to Latinos in Arizona, reaching out to black voters, reaching all these, you know, local or black focused magazines or, you know, podcasts or whatever and all that stuff, reaching out to asian american, Pacific islander voters, native hawaiian voters as well, you know, particularly in the critical swing states, which that got announced just a few days ago as well. So it's not like the Biden campaign doesn't know where the weaknesses are. But a key difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is going to be how much they're going to be able to spend, what are they going to be able to spend on? And I'll get to more of that as we go on. But we've covered Joe Biden's weaknesses. Now let's cover strengths. And what I found was that it's mostly more heavily college educated areas. The areas with higher college education rates, which are swinging left, by the way they're swinging towards Biden, are the areas where Joe Biden's doing the strongest. And it makes sense. Like, you see this with Donald Trump, too. The areas that he's swung right, he's doing the best with, because, you know, those voters, they're swinging to that particular candidate. When both candidates are going to be on the ballot again in 2024, it's like, oh, this president was the first, you know, Republican I ever voted for or the first Democrat that I ever voted for for that particular position. It's like, okay, that person's running again, I can trust voting for them again. And so you do see, you do see that, you know, again, like in the, I do go on about Harris County a lot, but you saw this in the Dallas Fort Worth Fort Worth metro area, particularly, you know, the suburban counties of Collin and Denton, where, you know, it's the same areas, generally speaking, where Joe Biden is doing better than a statewide average. Nikki Haley or non Trump candidates in general are doing better than their statewide averages as well. And it's the areas where you find protest votes in the republican primary where Joe Biden's doing well, that's evidence that those areas are going to keep swinging left. And the same thing if you do it, vice versa. Areas where Biden's doing weakest or areas where Trump's doing strongest. More generally, those areas tended to have more rightward swings. And thus, you can expect that those swings are going to continue with the college educated thing. It cuts across demographic lines. Like, if you're trying to parcel asian american Pacific islander votes and whatnot, it is usually, you know, more college education around Alif and some of the, some of those asian american communities, Donald Trump tended to do a lot better than a statewide average. You know, granted, those areas swung heavily to the right from 2016 to 2020. But, you know, especially in, like, an area like Collin county, county, you know, and Denton, you have areas with higher asian american Pacific islander populations. And these are going to be more, more so in, you know, south asian indian rather than chinese, vietnamese, and especially Vietnamese down in Aleph. You know, those areas in, you know, Collin, Denton, even Tarrant counties, you know, they're more likely to see, you know, more protest votes against Donald Trump and less against Joe Biden, you know, than the average precinct in the state of Texas. So that is something that is an interesting story. So when I say meet the 2024 election, same as the 2020 election, I'm not just talking about the two candidates. I'm talking about the trends, because they largely seem unchanged from 2020. It's something that neither party has really been able to stop.
[00:20:56] The only thing that the parties think are able to do successfully is try to accelerate the favorable trends towards them. And both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are going to try to do that.
[00:21:09] But here's the thing.
[00:21:14] In regarding these strengths and weaknesses, yes. Where Joe Biden tends to do strongest is where Donald Trump tends to his weakest, so on and so forth, except for areas with high populations of leftist, you know, more progressive voters. That seems to be exception in regards to the actual pro Palestine dissent against Joe Biden.
[00:21:35] But when I talk about spending money to try and maybe rectify some, you know, voter based turnout concerns or, you know, base voters potentially swinging right or swinging left, you know, against the candidate or whatnot, one thing that I think is going kind of under the radar by a vast majority of the american public is one simple fact. And I'm like, I'm not saying this as a Democrat who wants Trump to lose or anything like. Like that. I'm not speaking from any bias. I'm just speaking with cold, hard data. Donald Trump is broke. He is absolutely broke. And I'll tell you why. It's not just because of the legal fees, although that is a massive, massive, massive reason as to why Donald Trump has over $450 million and legal fees. He's got to pay the judge, you know, off of those. Off of those Eugene Carroll settlements for defamation.
[00:22:35] And Donald Trump's having some liquidity issues, you know, his lawyers are sent that statement to Judge in Gorgon Engran or whoever his name is up in New York, basically, they don't have the liquidity to post a bond necessary, you know, for that settlement. That is. He broke, in rich man's terms, he broke. And New York attorney General Letitia James, you know, just a couple of days ago actually, actually, you know, put in the first steps towards potentially seizing some of his assets. That's something that's been a popular discussion in mainstream media, especially on MSNBC. It seems like anything they discuss these days has to relate to Trump's legal problems or whatnot. Like, that's all Rachel Maddow ever seems to talk about anyways. But this is going to become a very real problem for Donald Trump's campaign because if you're going up to these courthouses to defend yourself against, you know, crimes that you're accused of, you know, whether it's documents case in Florida or wherever that, you know, election interference case in Georgia goes ahead, now that, you know, Wade's been kicked off the prosecutor's team, I mean, that is an entire story with funny Willis and Mister Wade or whatnot that I'm going to leave towards potentially another day maybe, when that, you know, trial, when a trial date potentially gets announced for that. Now that those proceedings could finally go ahead. And, and whether it's some of these other cases like Jack Smith is trying to bring us special NDC, you know, those are going to take a toll. They've already have taken a toll because one of the things to know about Donald Trump's fundraising efforts, a lot of that's not going towards his campaign for president. A lot of that's going towards just trying to pay off his legal fees to Lena Hava and all these other lawyers he's got top dollar lawyers. He's gotten to represent him. Now, I'm pretty sure he's being swindled, swindled and ripped off because results these top dollar lawyers have been getting him, not exactly the greatest, if you ask me, but I'm not a legal expert. He's got to pay them. He's got a nearly $460 million settlement. He's got to pay in New York unless his golf courses in west Chester county start to be seized because they have discussed seizing some of them just north of New York City, Westchester county.
[00:24:53] You know, this is going to start to take its soul. And the money that Donald Trump is using from his donor base, small dollar donor base, and the big, and the big donors, too, from the rich businessmen and these CEO's, these executives and whatnot, they're going towards the legal fees. If they're going towards that. You can't pay money to do advertising, you can't pay money to get out the vote efforts. And when you have news such as the, you know, because since he now has officially gotten enough delegates to win the republican primary, the Trump campaign and the RNC have a, you know, Trump National Committee, joint, joint fundraising committee, they have a JFC now.
[00:25:39] But the problem is, whatever money that JFC raises, a lot of that's not going to go to the RNC. Like, a lot of that money, that joint, that JFC money is gonna go towards Trump's legal fees.
[00:25:52] And considering the Republican National Committee, as I have discussed before, is quite cash strapped, like, last year was its worst fundraising year in two and a half decades, even when adjusted for inflation. And it doesn't look like it's going to be getting any better, especially considering that at the end of 2023, the Democratic National Committee had over two and a half times more cash on hand than the Republican National Committee.
[00:26:21] And now you have the DCCC, the House Democrats, you know, campaign finance arm is now outraising the RNCC, which is the House Republicans campaign finance arm, by a good, like 10 million cash on hand. Now, I believe, I think it was like 48 million to, like 37 million. I believe that was the margin and similar things with the Senate as well. But the big thing I want to focus on is just a presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And I'm going to read out some figures just in cash on hand, because you've seen a lot of the headlines. Oh, Joe Biden had mega outrage. Donald Trump. But it's not just a fundraising part of it. It's not just the fact that the Save America pack, which is one of Donald Trump's key packs, spent more money on legal fees than it raised the money in a recent month. I believe it may have even been February.
[00:27:18] But you want to know the cash on hand for Donald Trump? I'll start off with Donald Trump. He's got $43 million cash on hand. It seems like a lot of money, right? I mean, $43 million. You don't want to know what I do for $43 million.
[00:27:32] But when compared to Joe Biden, who's got 150 $65 million cash on hand, that is nearly a four times jump, nearly four times more than Donald Trump's cash on hand, that's appalling. That is nearly apocalyptic.
[00:27:55] And when you talk about the cash on hand, you've got to start building those reserves early. And the Democrats are doing this exceptionally well. That potentially is a consequence of college educated voters and more wealthy voters potentially swinging to the left because you're increasing that donor base of, you know, wealthy businesspeople, executives and whatnot, who are now voting not more based on their economic concerns, although economic concerns could have shifted the left as well. But it's more for them due to, you know, they do not like Donald Trump. Or maybe it's because of, you know, social views they're more voting on now or whatever it is. They're swinging to the left and you're building more of a donor base off of that.
[00:28:43] And these swings are happening in areas which primarily finance republican campaigns. Chief among them is going to get to the rest of Joe Biden Sunbelt trip. He barnstormed the Sunbelt this week. But I want to get to a fundraiser, particularly in Dallas, particularly in Highland park. Like, if you know anything about Dallas or Dallas Fort Worth, you know that the park cities are very republican. Suburban areas of Dallas county, those areas are very, very, very wealthy. And the park cities basically help finance republican operations all across the country. So when you have a democratic candidate for president, Joe Biden, coming in and these once super republican areas and raising $2.5 million, that's got to not only hurt the pride of the Republicans a little bit, they're not just hurt their egos, that's going to terrify them. Because an area which you had on lockdown, a super wealthy area which you had a lockdown on, you ain't got a lockdown on that anymore. Considering your finance problems, your fundraising problems, that's certainly not going to help you, especially when the small dollar donors can't donate as much as they can for the Republican, you know, for the Republican Party, for Donald Trump. One of Donald Trump's greatest fundraising strengths was you have a devoted, almost cultish follower base who are going to donate a significant amount of their pretty, their smaller incomes. They're going to donate a significant amount of that to your campaign because they believe a lot of the belief you have been ordained by guy to help guide this country through hard times.
[00:30:21] So when, you know, that dries up and it's starting to dry up, and it's not just that that is starting to dry up, it's these predatory, you know, campaign finance strategies that, you know, oh, you make a one time contribution for like $20. All of a sudden it's $20 a month. And a lot of these people don't realize that the banks are starting to catch on in this. And a lot of the banks, at least local banks, like, oh, wait, hold on. This person didn't consent to this. So we're so going to collaborate. We're going to try to cut that off.
[00:30:54] And so that is another factor into why Donald Trump's foreign raising has been so poor. The major factor, I believe, is that the big dollar republican donors, by and large, apart from a few, a lot of them, don't want to fundraise for Donald Trump.
[00:31:12] You don't want to be tied to a candidate with 91 federal criminal charges.
[00:31:18] Completely understandable, especially if you don't think you're going to get a good return on investment, especially if you think that that candidate is going to do everything in his power to try to blow the election for your party, a candidate who you didn't want to be your party's nominee in the first place. Some of them are starting to fundraise for Joe Biden. Now, some of those Haley voters, some of those Haley donors, like, there's six wealthy Haley donors, at least according to that CNBC article recently, they're now starting to fundraise for Joe Biden. And outside of that, Mark Cuban, you know, Biden voted in 2020, sure, but he donated to Nikki Haley. And now that Nikki Haley's dropped out, now that you realize that Nikki Haley doesn't have a prayer at winning republican presidential primary of the year 2024, now he's like, I'll fundraise for Joe Biden.
[00:32:15] And he has done so believe he was invited to one of those recent, to his recent Houston event where he fundraised millions of dollars. Speaking of which, I'm gonna give more details about that Sunbelt thing, because there is another interesting development that's happening between the two campaigns is that Joe Biden has been targeted. I mean, he has been targeting the media. He's 81 years old. Oh, he doesn't have the stamina for this, doesn't have the stamina for that. So what the Biden campaign has decided to do is like, oh, we're just going to send Biden out a bunch of fundraisers. So he had a fundraiser in Reno and a fundraiser in Las Vegas in the state of Nevada, a state that the Biden campaign views as very close. Close because of demographics that are favorable to swinging for Donald Trump, which I completely agree with, by the way. Nevada is a toss up state. It's going to be one of the states that I'm pretty confident that Democrats are going to do a bit slightly worse than they did in 2020. It's going to be very, very close in 2024, and we're not going to know who won that state for days. So I'm in full agreement with the Biden campaign there. It's not the first trip Joe Biden's made of Las Vegas recently, either. I think he made a visit, you know, only like a month ago, like, and they've also been, you know, trying to hit up, you know, local Las Vegas, you know, newspapers, especially in a lot of these, you know, you know, communities of color, a lot of diverse communities, especially in Las Vegas, if you haven't heard. No, there is a lot of, you know, asian american, Pacific Islander communities, a lot of, you know, obviously Latinos. Las Vegas, after all, a lot of, you know, even older retirees, you know, black Americans are in Nevada, slightly more conservative than average. So the Trump campaign could maybe try and get, try to get better swings out of there than it can in a state, you know, in a state like Georgia with black voters. So those are the, these are the things that the campaigns are taking into account. You know, and then Joe Biden went for basically a campaign stop. And I think there was a White House official thing going on in Phoenix, Arizona as well. Biden did some of his retail politicking that he is famous for, you know, going to these, you know, local businesses in Phoenix trying to court the latino vote specifically, you know, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the campaign manager for, you know, Joe Biden, they announced that Biden campaign is going to release a new ad and has released a new ad in English, in Spanglish and in Spanish about only one choice.
[00:34:58] They run that ads throughout latino news stations, heavily latino communities, tv markets, trying to reach more spanish speaking voters. One of the interesting things about the latino vote is that spanish speaking voters are, or primarily spanish speaking voters are far more likely to vote for Donald, for Joe Biden than english speaking voters. English speaking Latinos are, if you believe some of the samples that univision has, pretty even Biden by seven and then spanish speaking voters or Biden by 40 or something like that. So that is something that the Biden campaign, I think, is a very smart move, trying to turn up more spanish speaking voters, primarily spanish speaking voters, because if you don't, the Trump campaign will. I know the Biden campaign recently mocked Donald Trump and Dan Scavino. Oh, they're just reposting the same old Trump ad that you had in 2020. The problem with mocking that is like, oh, av, that ad worked. Like, that ad very much worked because I hate to admit it, it's a fun shingle. Like, that is an earworm. It gets stuck in your head. Yo voya votar bor donna. Nah, look like, play that Hialeah and my God, you will have raids down the street for Donald Trump. Like, I'm not even joking. Coincidentally also, some of Donald Trump's strongest areas in Miami Dade county were amongst particularly cuban and heavily cuban american areas. And there's another nuance in regards to latino vote.
[00:36:42] Ethically. Mexican american voters in Houston and especially San Antonio or Dallas, they're not going to be voting the same as Salvadorenos or Salvadorans in northern Virginia. They're not going to be voting the same as Cuban Americans in Miami Dade county, or Hialeah specifically, or even Cuban Americans in Louisville. They're not going to be voting the same as ethnically Mexican Americans in Los Angeles. Not going to be voting the same as, you know, Puerto Ricans, Berto de Daniels and the Bronx, or in other areas of New York City. Not going to be voting the same as South Americans or Colombians. Peruvians. Not going to be voting. They're not going to be voting the same as Hondurans or Nicaraguans. Panamanians, Dominicans.
[00:37:26] There are these specific nuances that these campaigns have to understand.
[00:37:32] Like, no one latino person or no one latino community is the same as another.
[00:37:38] Like, the latino community in Providence is miles different from latino community in Russellville, Alabama. And latino community that you find and that is somewhat prevalent in areas of South Georgia is going to be miles different from latino community you see in Osceola County, Florida.
[00:37:58] And, you know, ditto, you know, in San Jose, California. Like, there are these nuances you have to approach. Like, the latino communities that you see in, you know, in the Atlanta metro, especially when you go along that belt from parts of Fulton into DeKalb and to, essentially Gwinnett counties, they're not going to be the same latino communities you're trying to reach out to in Las Vegas. And the ones you're going to try to reach out to, a lot of the heavily puerto rican populations in reading and in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, they're not going to be the same ones that you're trying to reach out to in Detroit, Michigan.
[00:38:40] Detroit has a pretty decently sized latino population.
[00:38:44] And again, these nuances are something that you cannot take for granted because something that hits wonderfully with a particular latino community is not going to hit the same with another one. And ditto for asian american Pacific islands to voters as well, like, what works for a lot of Indian Americans isn't going to work for a lot of maybe Chinese Americans, Korean Americans, Japanese Americans, Filipinos or whatnot. The same thing. Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and all these other wonderful, wondrous communities.
[00:39:18] So here's where the money spread comes in. I talked about this, 155 million cash on hand for Biden, 43 million on hand for Donald Trump.
[00:39:29] Already the Biden campaign is going to be spending in more places than the Trump campaign can, and it is also going to be spending more money in these specific states. You're not just going to be popping, you're not just going to be popping, like, one day of ads towards, you know, towards Dallas Fort Worth media market. I mean, expensive is the Dallas Fort Worth media market. It is buying key, one of the most expensive media markets in the nation to advertise in.
[00:40:00] That's not what the Biden camp is really going for. Like, obviously, you know, a state like Texas or a state like Florida, especially a state Florida, they're secondary states. But campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, she announced that Biden campaign is going to spend in them. You know, apart from North Carolina, those are the only opportunities the Biden campaign has to expand the map. And while I do not advise spending in Florida, if I was there, I'm like, look, you don't really need to spend too much on Florida unless you want to make the resist lib donors in Florida happy. Go do a fundraiser there, as Biden has done recently, by the way. Go to a, don't go to fundraisers there. Throw some money to keep them happy. Maybe knock off Paulina Luna or something. Because remember, Pinellas county was one of Trump's weakest counties in that Florida primary, by the way. And I was thinking, you know, with these 2022 midterm results and appalling, and Luna barely overperforming, you know, Donald Trump's margins in 2020 as statewide republicans were outperformed by 15 points, you know, thinking, oh, Anna Paulina Luna is a total fraud. Maybe it was, maybe that's less so now that I view these results. Maybe it was just more Pinellas county, you know, some more recent leverage shifts, you know, at least in, you know, areas north of St. Petersburg, who knows, especially in Annapolina Lunas district. Maybe, you know, Chuck a, chuck a few mil there because you can, you can do that with the, what, the over $110 million cash on hand discrepancy right now that you have against Donald Trump. Like, you get to blanket television in your ass, especially in the seven swing states that you've identified. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, you get to blanket those states in acts. You get to dominate the airways. One of the reasons why Thomas Watson, New York Stern congressional initial, was able to win as much as he did that should even slightly exceed Joe Biden's marginal. The final numbers from Nassau county are finally out was because he was able to dominate the airways. He got well over 60% of the total tv time. And also, when you're donating specifically to a candidate and that candidate and their pacs, the candidate campaigns, they get a much better deal on tv ads than an outside group coming in. Future, four pack is not getting the same deal as, say, a Biden victory fund, you know, and an outside pack, a club for growth, is going to get a much worse deal on tv ad time than the Trump campaign or, like, the Ted Cruz campaign in 2016, for example. I mean, like, like, look, and when you have this, you know, Chris Solisa will go out there and say, oh, you know, I'm going to equivocate. Biden, you know, equivocate isn't even a word, by the way. No, he's going to make equivalencies. There is what I was going for. Joe Biden spending money in Texas is the same as Donald Trump saying he could win New York, even though Joe Biden only lost Texas by 5.6 percentage points and Trump lost New York by well over 20 points.
[00:43:23] Yeah, but they're the same. The only reason they're the same is if the national environment was zero by ten. Trust me, national environments not gonna be trumped by ten. I can tell you that right now. I will bet that if that happens, I will. I will send a video out, you know, on the pulse of the nation Instagram account of me physically eating a piece of paper. I can promise you that. But it's not gonna happen.
[00:43:49] Even when you have hacks like crystaliza, not sure how he's making a living writing about politics when he's got, you know, when he has takes that are more brain dead than the Virginia basketball offense.
[00:44:02] Again, another. Another favorite of mine to dunk on for, at least for me, obvious reasons. He's been having terrible takes for years, but it's not far fetched when you consider that, you know, you can consult my entire, like, 45 minutes spiel on why I think Texas is going to be very competitive in 2024 this year.
[00:44:23] Go to the spiel. I did, like, almost a year ago at this point, but, yeah, but you get to spend in these areas because you have the massive monetary advantages. You don't just get to spend in the swing states. Donald Trump's spending is going to be a lot more concentrated in the swing states than it needs to be because his fundraising has been very poor. When you have the money spread, when the Trump campaign cannot even come close to going ban for ban with you, you get to spend money in Florida and Texas, especially Texas, which is going to be critical for Democrats chances of holding the US Senate. You get to spend in a place like Ohio, because for every percentage point that Joe Biden chucks off of Donald Trump's march here in Ohio, the easier it becomes for Sherrod Brown to beat Bernie Moreno in that Ohio US Senate race, you could maybe chuck a couple million in Montana. I know it's not exactly the most advisable, but similar deal. Every percentage point you can chuck off of Donald Trump's margin. The more you can swing Bozeman left, the more you can make billings not as conservative as it usually is, the more you can swing western Montana left. It's not just going to help John Tester. You have a competitive House race in western Montana. Montana's first congressional initiative, Ryan Zinke is going to be facing Monica Trano again, I believe. And that's as all the makings of a very competitive race that the Democrats can win. So if you're continuing to swing western Montana a lot more leftward, then maybe it should be then even if John Tester doesn't win, you're still reaping rewards because the US House promises once again to be very competitive in 2024. If you're winning a seat in Montana, that's one more, that's one more cushion against the New York Democrats screwing up an opportunity to flip the US House to representatives or California Democrats being laxadaisical. You know, you get to cover for another state party screw ups, essentially, you know, missed opportunities by picking off opportunities in other areas. You know, Alabama's second congressional district is going to be an example of that thanks to redistricting.
[00:46:36] What was it? Louisiana six congressional district, it's going to be another example of that thanks to redistricting. You get more cushion, you know, and especially considering that you get to now leverage the chaos that we had discussed on this podcast earlier. And the US House of Representatives now led by Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Shreveport, Louisiana, now you get to leverage that in your ads, you know, and it's not just about getting the message out more, it's about spreading that message. You know, I talk about Florida and Texas most talking about spending, you know, in states that very much lean your way, states like New Hampshire, states like Minnesota, New Mexico, even a state like Colorado that, you know, lean your way now but were once competitive. And if this is a red wave style environment, could very well be competitive again. A state like Maine, like you can spend there to shore yourself up, because you can. And because largely youre going to go on challenge in those states because Donald Trump cannot raise the money to do so. This is without the legal fees, by the way. The legal fees are only going to compound this problem. And what about other US House races? You know, if the RNC doesn't have enough money to sort of help give to the RNCC, you know, if the Trump campaign like that, you can't share a lot of that money. The Biden campaign can. You can coordinate efforts using the efforts of the presidential campaigns to help us house candidates in Long Island, New York, in Orange County, California, for example.
[00:48:27] If you really want to do so, you could potentially focus on defending what you have. Michigan flipping John James's district, Michigan's 10th congressional district. You can flip back a lot of these Biden won seats that republicans won in 2022. Even Alaska, like, if you could get to a point where it's like, okay, you have Mary Popola, you know, you can chuck a couple million there, let Mary Popola be the lead in Alaska for the Alaska Democratic Party because they have kind of their own brand. Alice, pull Tola being the main representative for the party is US House representative from Alaska, succeeding the Republican Don Young.
[00:49:11] I mean, Alaska is going to be a state, I would drop some gospel on y'all. Alaska is going to be a state that's decided in the single digits, probably the mid single digits, the way that anchorages and fairbanks have been swinging left.
[00:49:25] So you some chunks of money there at an effort to turn out native american voters, native alaskan voters, you know, as part of a nationwide effort to do so in a state like Arizona, the navajo and the hopi nations and some of the other nations, whatever it is, you know, you go in there as well, you know, in a state like Nevada, in a state like North Carolina, potentially try to recover some of your losses with the lumbee tribe in Robeson county.
[00:49:55] You know, you get to do these sort of things. You get to make sort of these campaign expenditures that would be very risky if Donald Trump could match you. But Donald Trump is nowhere close to matching if you're the Biden campaign. So you're like, okay, you get to spread them thin. You force him, if you force him to defend Texas, because that's what a lot of these early expenditures are for. Make Donald Trump defend North Carolina. Make him defend Texas. Texas is going to be the big one. Because, look, you have all this money coming into Texas, not just democratic money. Colin Allred is not going to be starring for money, by the way. He's one of the biggest, best fundraisers the Democratic Party has in 2024. And in Texas, it's going to go a very long way with those media markets in Houston, San Antonio, and Austin and Dallas and everywhere. Essentially, even South Texas isn't that cheap.
[00:50:48] But you get to do these sort of things.
[00:50:53] You get to spend in states you usually wouldn't spend, not just in trying to expand the map, but make sure that if your candidate loses, it's not a complete demolition of the party.
[00:51:03] When you have the 112 or so million dollars cash on hand discrepancy in your favor, you get to make expenditures that the Trump campaign can't match right now.
[00:51:18] And when you get closer in these elections, then these expenditures often have diminishing returns.
[00:51:28] If you're not able to spend until very late in a close race, you're screwed up race. If you are defined early, or if there is like a period of a few weeks where you are defined and you're not hating back from tv ads. As we saw the Wisconsin Senate race with Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin, Ron Johnson was able to beat him off of that. If you're not able to respond effectively, if you don't have the necessary tv time to do so, you're screwed.
[00:52:03] This is something that we have to watch as we go on and the impending trials that are going to be coming up soon for Donald Trump in a few months. There is a possibility that we could be in the middle, the top and the bottom of the 9th innings in regards to this general election campaign. And instead of campaigning like you should be, Donald Trump is out these courthouses standing trial. That is a very distinct possibility.
[00:52:32] October surprises are called October surprises for a reason, y'all.
[00:52:36] And something else about these rallies is not just, oh, he can't do as many rallies because he has these court appearances.
[00:52:42] Fact of the matter is, he might be too broke to do rallies because recently he just had to cancel a rally in Arizona to prioritize spending more time at a bucket sky values PAC rally in Dayton, Ohio for Bernie Moreno.
[00:52:58] Now, a part of me also thinks canceling a rally in Arizona, which is a critical swing state by any stretch of the imagination, talk to any mainstream analyst, they'll tell you Arizona is a critical swing state, maybe the Trump campaign seeing poll numbers that a lot of people aren't, and they're seeing the same thing I'm seeing, saw the primary results. What Donald Trump did terribly in the East Valley, especially on Scottsdale, he's saying, well, Democrats might rob the victory in Arizona.
[00:53:32] And I could completely understand that if I'm the Trump campaign, because I will say this right now, Arizona is a state that Joe Biden needs to have in order to win. It's not a state Trump needs to have.
[00:53:46] It's just swinging too far to the left and the demographics are too favorable for Democrats in regards to swings and trends left.
[00:53:55] Republicans can put up a fight, but we saw this in 2022 with a Trump by four, Trump by five elector, Republicans blew nearly every statewide competitive race that they had.
[00:54:07] And considering the direction of the state party, the civil war that state party just went through, considering that their Senate nominee is Kerry Lake, that's not going to change. Like, that is not going to change whatsoever.
[00:54:20] So again, and you also have internal civil wars in a state like Michigan. Republicans think they should win Michigan. CNN thinks that Michigan leans towards the Republicans for Gaza or whatever reason.
[00:54:36] No, people forget Michigan voted for Biden by 156,000 votes. People forget Biden has aligned himself so much with the labor unions. Labor unions are pretty big in Michigan.
[00:54:50] So not sure where the delusion is coming from, CNN, but you to you, and again, Michigan is going to be a state where it's going to be focused on by the Biden campaign a tremendous amount.
[00:55:04] And Donald Trump's not going to be able to spend of it. He'll be as much money there because not only is a lot of it going towards legal fees right now, he's a worse fundraiser than Joe Biden. And for a guy that, you know, the Republican Party views as senile, as old, the majority of the american public views as incompetent to serve another four years in office. Majority american public doesn't think he'll be able to serve another four years in office. How embarrassing must it be for, for Donald Trump to get lapped in fundraising by that guy?
[00:55:33] Oh, and speaking of fundraisers, there's going to be one fundraiser that's coming up in New York City. It's a radio city music hall. And it's going to be the biggest fundraiser in democratic party history, potentially in us history. Even bigger in raw dollar value amounts than what Standard Oil give to William gave to Willie McKinley's campaign, 1896. That was a $250,000 check, Stan. And Oil gave McKinley's campaign right now, in real dollars, that would be about $9.2 million in 2024.
[00:56:10] This fundraiser is going to be going to feature three democratic presidents. Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden is going to have Stephen Colbert there, I think, interviewing the three presidents, having an event with the three presidents, photo ops are going for as little as $100,000.
[00:56:29] So, yeah, top dollar, y'all, top dollar.
[00:56:33] I know I ain't talking about the guy who is now working in TNA for whatever reason.
[00:56:40] You know, tickets are going on sale for as low as $250. Still pretty penny for people like me, people like a lot of us who are watching. But when you go to some of those other dollar amounts.
[00:56:53] But that's supposed to bring in over $10 million or, you know, nearly one fourth of the entirety of the cash on hand that Donald Trump's campaign apparatus has. And that's just one fundraiser. One.
[00:57:17] Do y'all see the vision yet? Like y'all seeing the vision, this is an election that, oh, you have an unpopular incumbent. The challengers party should be winning easily, but the challengers party, in my opinion, you could ignore the polling for a second, which the polling is showing the republican party should be doing. Well, Donald Trump should be beating Joe Biden.
[00:57:40] All these critical swing states, Trump is leading Biden and all these polls. But in everything else, the republican party is doing everything to blow this election.
[00:57:50] Doing everything to blow this election.
[00:57:53] Like, you shouldn't take the polls as gospel right now. Polls usually only become reliable again after the conventions. We've got a few months.
[00:58:03] And granted, if these polls don't change, it's all right for Democrats to worry. I will worry.
[00:58:12] But again, if the special elections, if the elections where people actually vote get taken into account, and you're still seeing the same things I'm seeing right now, where the environment is going to be similar to 2020, if not a bit to the left of that right now. The combined special election averages, after the 20, 2022 midterms, about a point to the left. 2023. Democrats did a lot better than 2024. But any taken to account, all these averages, the averages point to about a d by 5d by six environment, which would be a 319 electoral vote environment for Joe Biden, at minimum, flipping North Carolina, holding on to all of your other states. That's an environment where Democrats can win a federal trifecta somehow. Although that would involve flipping Texas. Let's be completely honest, you have to assume one of Ohio or Montana are going to flip to Republicans, even if the nominees are Tim Sheahy, that is Montana's version of Adam Waxall or Bernie Musk salesman Moreno.
[00:59:20] But when you take into account these special elections, these don't get nationalized. But there is one that has been, and that is, this is where the last topic I go before I take out my ratings outlook for the presidency, I'm going to talk about House district ten again. Special election is coming up this Tuesday. And last I spoke of it, I said it was going to be a very competitive race. Both, you know, a Maryland's polling show that was close. Teddy Powell had himself favored. But now this race has gotten a lot of national attention because of the IVF stuff, because of, because of the abortion issue. And now, you know, you have CNN, you have the situation. Wolf Blitzer is talking about Huntsville, Madison County, Triana, you know, Redstone Arsenal. You have all this space camp stuff going on now where, where more anti trans policies are being put onto state bills because of pressure from conservatives. And these issues are now becoming nationalized. You have more national outlets covering this specific race. And these specific suburbs went from Trump by 13 to Trump by less than a point.
[01:00:37] 2016 and 2020. It is a district that I said repeatedly is most likely going to vote for Joe Biden by a healthy margin.
[01:00:46] And Marilyn Lance herself is saying that she had a lot more, you know, excitability amongst her campaign now than she had in 2022. And in 2022, she outperformed, she outran the top of the ticket by a few points. Like she lost by like what? Believe, like less than seven points or so when, you know, Katie Britt was winning this area by eleven or so.
[01:01:11] So that special election is going to be seen as a national test. If Democrats are able to win the special election, that will give them more of a momentum boost. And again, that will, that will slightly add to the fundraising hall and the fundraising advantage that Democrats have.
[01:01:30] So my ratings outlook, this is what we're going to end it off on. I'm going to be doing ratings outlooks every two weeks to a month or so. But I'll tell you all the episode before I release the ratings outlook when I do it. I'll also be doing ratings outlooks for the US Senate and for the US House. Those will be coming up soon.
[01:01:52] So we're going to go from West coast to East coast, y'all. So be ready. So Alaska I have, is likely republican because I've said earlier, I mean, Alaska only voted for Trump by less than eleven points in 2020. It's swinging left. Mary Paltulla represents it in the US house. And with Anchorage and with Fairbanks and Juno swinging left, I see it as a mid single digits. Trump win. Trump will win the state, but it's going to be closer than a lot of people expect. Washington, Oregon, California, safe democratic. I don't. And Hawaii, also safe democratic. I don't really need to explain why Arizona lean democratic, because I know, you know, mainstream media will probably have it as a toss up. But look, y'all, I have a feeling Joe Biden's going to clean Donald Trump's clock out in Arizona. It is a state that has high latino population. But Arizona Latinos didn't swing as much to the right as, you know, other Latinos across the country did. Now, granted, probably some slight ring of slight rightward swings, but when you have Scottsdale, when you have all these wider, more college educated northern Phoenix suburbs swinging like five to ten points to the left, that's a death sentence for Arizona Republicans, who have already made a habit out of losing competitive races. They've made this a habit since 2018, for crying out loud. So, yeah, Lane's democratic. Nevada's a toss up. Probably going to be decided within a point because that's just how Nevada rolls.
[01:03:20] New Mexico is solidly democratic. Like, look, Joe Biden's probably going to win it by over double digits, by over ten points. And if it's going by over ten points, it's going to be safe democratic. Same thing with Colorado. No way. Donald Trump swings Colorado. Right? Words. Joe Biden won over 13 points. He's probably going to win it by close to 20. This time around. The Colorado Republican Party is a giant mess. I discussed this in, you know, past episodes. I'm not going to go over here, here. But, yeah, Utah, safe Republican. And for obvious reasons, although could be interesting to see some of the under the hood shifts left in the Salt Lake City and potentially even a Logan cache county. Watch out, they got Idaho, you know, Montana, Wyoming, safe Republican. Montana, though, again, under the hood shifts, you have a US Senate race to watch. That will be the main event in that state. North Dakota, South Dakota, safe Republican. Don't need to explain why. Nebraska, statewide, safe Republican. Nebraska's third district. Safe Republican. Nebraska's first district. This is around Lincoln and some of the surrounding rural areas and exurbs of Omaha, likely Republican, because again, that's something that Trump will win, but it'll be in the single digits, closer than people expect. Nebraska, second at the federal level. That's Omaha. Sorry, that safe Democratic. I'm gonna go out in a limb. Nebraska, second district is safe Democratic. At the presidential level, it might be too much for Don Bacon to overcome. At the House level, though, I think it's a gossip because Don Bacon is still very strong incumbent. Kansas is likely Republican. Did you see the primary results out in Kansas where Donald Trump nearly lost a quarter of Kansas Republicans after the primary cycle was over?
[01:05:02] I mean, Kansas is going to be a state that votes both for Trump, of course, but only by single digits because I think the national environment is going to be very similar to where it was in 2020. Oklahoma, safe Republican. Texas, liens, Republican. Trump should win the state, but it's going to be very competitive. And if the Republicans blow it enough like, it would be very hilarious. There is a slight possibility Biden wins the state. Very slight, though. Now, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, safer Republican. Arkansas, Tennessee, you know, up to Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, all safe Republican as well.
[01:05:39] Georgia is a toss up. North Carolina is a toss up. Florida is likely Republican only because I don't think Trump's going to hit a double digit margin of victory there.
[01:05:49] A state like Minnesota, yes, there is a lot of leftist discontent in Minnesota. Minnesota is a pretty progressive state, but still should still safe. Joe Biden, still safe Democratic. Illinois, safe Democratic. Wisconsin's a toss up. Michigan, I think, is a toss up. Pennsylvania, I think it is a toss up. West Virginia, obviously, safe Republican.
[01:06:13] Ohio, I think, is likely republican. Iowa is safe Republican. I think Donald Trump wins Ohio by like eleven points or so. I think that's, it's just going to keep shifting, right? Because two dominated by the rules, which are shifting right now, low college education rates, I mean, it might not be a double digit margin or victory, but it's close enough. I'll put it in safe republican. I mean, watch out for like Des Moines and Iowa City, particularly that southwestern congressional district in Iowa, the Iowa third congressional district held by Zach Nunn, he could be a 2022, like one term, like wave aviary or something like that.
[01:06:48] But going up, obviously, DC, Maryland, some of the safest democratic states, you'll see. Don't blow the Hubble woo about, you know, oh, Larry Hogan's leading in the polls. Nah, this is just Phil Bredesen, but in republican form, safe. That Senate race is also safe democratic. Don't worry about that.
[01:07:03] In a state like Delaware, safe, democratic. New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, safe, democratic. New Hampshire is safe democratic to me as well. Joe Biden's winning that by over double digits. I'm extremely convinced of that. Maine at large, I think is safe democratic for similar reasons. Maine's first, obviously, if democratic Maine second, I believe is, I want to say lean because I don't think the margin will be that big, but it'll be likely republican because Donald Trump should not be losing. That is less of a chance to lose Maine's second congressional district than he has it losing Texas, in my opinion. So those are presidential ratings. I have Biden as about a 65 to 35 favorite over Donald Trump in this presidential election. But you know, this is March. As John Rothstein says, this is March. Anything can happen from March up until the general election. Things can change in a hurry. I know that everybody knows these two presidential candidates already, but this is still politics and anything can happen. And that's why we try to bring you the bolts of the nation every week. Thank you for listening to us through the spiel about the presidential election. We'll bring you some more regular content next week as we enter the end of March and into April. Thank you for listening. This has been the bolts of the nation.
[01:08:32] Any opinions expressed in this program are those of the host and do not represent the thoughts or opinions of 90.7 WVUA or the University of Alabama. WVUA FM, Tuscaloosa.
